Bitcoin’s Consistent Four-Year Cycle
– The crypto market follows a cyclical pattern with specific metrics marking the beginning and end of a cycle.
– Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle with consistent patterns.
– This cycle involves Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high, followed by an 80% drawdown a year later.
– It takes two years for Bitcoin to recover to its past high and start another bull run.
– Bitcoin’s current stage is likely the recovery stage, considering the 80% drawdown in 2022.
Bitcoin’s Halving as an Important Metric
– Bitcoin’s halving events have occurred 18 months after the market bottomed.
– The halvings have also happened 7 months before Bitcoin broke to a new all-time high.
– If Bitcoin follows its usual patterns, it could hit a new all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024.
ISM Index Could Determine Next Bull Run
– The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index in the US correlates with the Bitcoin market.
– Bitcoin price peaks align with the ISM index topping out.
– Active addresses, transaction volumes, and fees on the Bitcoin network also peak alongside the ISM index.
– The ISM index is nearing the end of its two-year downtrend, suggesting the next bull run may be near.
Hot Take
Based on the analysis, it appears that the next Bitcoin bull run could be on the horizon. The consistent four-year cycle and the correlation with the ISM index provide insights into potential market movements. However, it’s important to remember that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and influenced by various factors. It’s always advisable to do thorough research and make informed decisions when investing in cryptocurrencies.
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