In recent days, the price of Bitcoinย (BTC) in USD appearsย to be struggling a bit.
Onย theย otherย hand, this difficulty is evident only in the short term, because already in the medium/short term things change.
The concept of discovered price
1 of the metrics that it always pays to keep an eye on is the so- wasย known discovered price.
This is a metric that broadly signifies the average buy price.
Inย reality, it is obtained by dividing the discovered cap by the number of existing coins, and the discovered cap is obtained by multiplying the price of Bitcoin at the time of the last visible move on the blockchainย tech by each individual UTXO, and adding it all up.
UTXO means Unspent Transaction Output, that is, Bitcoin that is cashed in by individual addresses and not isย still spent.
Althoughย while the discovered price does not accurately represent the average buy price, it is perhaps the best estimate we have for being able to imagine an average buy price.
Ofย course, the discovered price likewise includes all the Bitcoin that has been lost over time, so it is a default estimate.
Asย ofย now, Bitcoinโs discovered price isย still only just over $21,000.ย
Bitcoinย (BTC): the average buy price in USD
Despiteย theย factย that this is only a rough default estimate, the $21,200 discovered price is definitely still far below theย present price.
Then onceย more, although most people purchased Bitcoin in 2021, at the height of the bubble and at prices certainly higher than $21,000, it should not be forgotten that the discovered price only takes into account the likely buy prices of Bitcoinย (BTC) that have not isย still been spent, i.e., still in the wallet.ย
So it excludes, forย instance, those who purchased in 2021 and sold in 2022.
Furthermore, for every single Bitcoin sold in 2022 at a low price thereย is someone who purchased it, precisely at a low price, and whether they still have it in their portfolio affects the discovered price calculation.
Added to this isย that until 13 January 2023 the price of Bitcoinย (BTC) was below the $20,000 mark, and had been since 8 November 2022.
Inย theย faceย ofย this, the estimate suggested by Swift would not appearย to be absurd, although it is certainly approximated by default owingย to the fact that the Bitcoin lost forever are likewise taken into consideration, which no longer have any value because they are definitely unusable.
It is worth keepingย inย mindย that there are only 4 Million Bitcoin that do not seemย to have been moved to blockchainย tech in the past 5 years, and that there are greaterย than 1 Million that have instead been moved in the past 30ย days alone.ย
In total there are just under 19.4 Million Bitcoin, and given that, in the aย yearย ago alone, i.e., following the implosion of the Terra/Luna ecologicalย system that caused the price of Bitcoinย (BTC) to fall below $30,000, almost 8 Million seemย to have been moved, which impliesย that only slightly greaterย than half have not moved in greaterย than a year.ย
Onย theย otherย sideย , fewer than 3 Million have moved from May 2020 to May 2022, which is far fewer than those moved in the past 12 months.
Theย present price of Bitcoinย (BTC) in USD
Not only is Bitcoinโs current price over $26,000 far higher than theย present discovered price of about $20,000, but during the last bear-market the price of Bitcoin has only been below the discovered price for about 7 months. Previously it had been over that threshold for greaterย than two years.
So it is not at all an anomaly that the price of Bitcoin is over the discovered price, although it is traditionally well over that threshold, and not just by 30 percent as it is now.
It is worth keepingย inย mindย that Bitcoinโs discovered price rose over $20,000 for the 1st time in history in April 2021, which was when the 1st speculative bubble that marked the last big bull run was about to end.
By contrast, in December 2020, when the price hadย moreย than $20,000, the discovered price was still below $9,000. Nonetheless, this outlines how fast the discovered price can likewise move, which doubled in about four months in early 2021.
What is even more interesting though isย theย factย that it has never hadย moreย than $26,000, as Bitcoinโs maximum discovered price was touched in April 2022, at the height of the bear-market, precisely at $26,003.
Andย once the price began to fall, at the end of April, the discovered price likewise dropped, until it reached the weakestย point of the last bear-market in March inย theย year, below $20,800.
Thisย isย why as long as the price of Bitcoinย (BTC) stays over $21,000 there appearsย to be no particular danger in the medium/ longstanding, and as long as it stays over $26,000 likewise, everything is definitely normal.
