Amidst the ongoing halt in negotiations to raise theย Unitedย States governmentโs debt limit of $31.4 trillion, market uncertainty persists, and a faction of analysts is diverging from the consensus by cautioning about potential repercussions for the digitalย currency market.
Debt Limit Deadlock โ Cryptocurrencyย Market Braces for Uncertain Times
The Unitedย States reached its statutory debt limit on January 19, prompting the Treasury to take extraordinary measures and deplete its Treasury General Account (TGA) balance toย maintain Government operations.
This strategy attemptedย to prevent a Government default and mitigate concerns over the Federal Reserveโs continuous interest price hikes, thereby maintaining demand for assets such as Bitcoinย (BTC), which are sensitive to fluctuations in Unitedย States dollar liquidity.
Reportsย by MacroMicro, the TGA balance has declined from approximately $500 Billion at the beginning of February to $68 Billion as of pastย week. Goldmanย Sachsย Group predicts that the Treasuryโs cash balance will likely dip to the minimum required $30 Billion by early June, necessitating a debt deal before that time to avert what some perceive as a catastrophic default.
Once the debt limit is increased, the Treasury will seek to replenish its cash balance by issuing Government bonds. This move could drain liquidity from the system and exert upward pressure on bond yields. As increased bond issuance typically drives prices down and yields up. Bitcoin, which has exhibited an inverse relationship with bond yields, couldย be adversely affected.
Consequently, although a potential deal canย potentially eliminate substantial economic uncertainty, assets like digitalย currencies, which lack ties to the real economy and heavily rely on fiat liquidity, could experience adverse consequences.
Noelle Acheson, author of the Cryptocurrency Is Macro Now newsletter, pointedย outย that the issuance of debt to replenish the Treasuryโs coffers would likely result in money flowing out of cash and danger assets and into Unitedย States Government bonds.
This tendency would be exacerbated as yields on these instruments boost to offset the increased supply. Acheson alsoย mentionedย that this scenario mayย be unfavorable for Bitcoinย (BTC) and gold, which typically decline in price when yields rise.
Market consensus thus far has suggested that a default would trigger panic selling and a worldwide scramble for cash, similar to the events witnessed during the collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 when BTCโs value plummeted by over 50%. Conversely, a successful debt deal is expected to spur a more risk-on environment.
Challenging this prevailing outlook is Satyakam Gautam, a prices trader at India-based ICICI Bank, who anticipates that the Treasury will likely issue $700 Billion in bonds over theย following few months, leading to widespread danger aversion.
Gautam claimsย that this outcome would result in a scarcity of USD financing afterย having the successful negotiation of the debt ceiling, making it challenging for corporate bond markets and private credit to refinance existing maturities.
Consequently, a real collapse could occur in the commercial real estate assets financing sector or between low-quality bond issuers. Gautam believes this collapse mayย be the long-awaited event that has been anticipated in Unitedย States price markets.
In such a scenario, there mayย be a subsequent decline in longstanding prices and a wholeย lotย of steepening of Unitedย States prices. This development, reportsย by Gautam, would bode well for safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Swiss franc (CHF).
Theย present stalemate in debt limit negotiations has made the market uncertain, leading some analysts to differ in opinion and raise concerns about how itย canย potentially negatively affect the digitalย currency market.
Althoughย while a resolution may alleviate economic uncertainty, the issuance of additional Government debt could redirect funds away from danger assets like Bitcoinย (BTC), negatively impacting their value. Conversely, a default scenario is anticipated to trigger a rush for cash, akin to past market crashes, while a successful debt deal is expected to encourage a more risk-on environment.
Varying viewpoints continue to exist, as certain specialists foresee danger aversion and possible consequences for commercial real estate and issuers of low-quality bonds when the debt ceiling is increased.
Janet Yellenโs Dire Warning โ Impending Treasury Crisis Threatens Economy and Cryptocurrency Markets
In a communication to the House of Representatives on May 22, Janet Yellen announced a cautionary statement indicating that the Treasury is highly unlikely to fulfill its governmental obligations in the coming month.
This warning stems from the approaching debt ceiling or debt limit of the Unitedย States economy. The debt ceiling acts as a legal restriction on the total amount of national debt that the Treasury can accumulate.
Essentially, it imposes a cap on the extent to which the federal Government can pay for its expenses by further borrowing money against the existing debt.
President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy concluded their discussions on May 22 without reaching an agreement on raising the debt ceiling.
Yellenโs assessment paints a bleak picture, emphasizing that a failure to increase the debt ceiling would have catastrophic consequences for the economy.
โ Accordingย to theย news available, I am writing to convey our estimation that, if Congress does not take action to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, the Treasury will likely be unable to fulfill all of the governmentโs obligations,โ Yellen stated in her letter.
She further highlighted the detrimental effects of waiting until the last minute to suspend or raise the debt limit. These consequences include negative impacts on business and consumer confidence, increased borrowing costs in the short term, and potential downgrades in Unitedย States credit ratings.
Representatives from numerous political factions have been devising proposals to curtail federal spending and reduce the deficit.
Joe Biden recently stated his opposition to a deal that would safeguard wealthy tax evaders and digitalย currency traders, between others.
Given theย pastย few correlation betwixt cryptocurrency markets and stock markets, the outcome is unlikely to be favorable.
As the deadline approaches, Wall Street bank strategists are expressing concerns about stock market volatility. Matthew Miskin, co-chief financing strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, cautioned, โAs we enter thisย comingย week, the market appears more vulnerable to volatility surrounding the debt ceiling.โ
On May 23, cryptocurrency analyst โCold Blooded Shillerโ drew attention to the events that transpired forย theย past instance of reaching the debt limit in 2011.
Timeline of the last Debt Ceiling Crisis back in 2011.
Times are different etc etc, but hereโs a little overview to the way things played out.
We had the debt limit reached 3 months prior to the agreement being signed.
The market puked -17 percent in the 5 days AFTER the agreement. pic.twitter.com/l2DCCCtdlM
โ Cold Blooded Shiller (@ColdBloodShill) May 23, 2023
The debt limit was reached 3 months before an agreement was reached, and stock markets experienced a decline the week after the agreement was signed.
