DOGE: Bull or Bear Market?

DOGE: Bull or Bear Market?


Learn why the recent surge in transactional activity on the Dogecoin network may not be helping its price prospects, and why whales are turning away from DOGE, potentially triggering a negative price prediction.

Dogecoinย (DOGE) price has stagnated betwixt $0.072 and $0.075 zone duringย theย previous 3 weeks. Theย pastย few DRC-20 Ordinals hype has seen transaction volumes skyrocket to unprecedented highs.ย  Onย theย otherย hand, on-chain data show how this seemsย to be undermining the chances of a positiveย  tendency Dogecoinย (DOGE) price breakout.ย 

On May 22, 2023, the Dogecoinย (DOGE) blockchainย tech network hadย moreย than 1.3 Million daily transactions for the 1st time in history. Onย theย otherย hand, on-chain data shows DRC-20 Ordinals hype has not impacted Dogecoinย (DOGE) price prospects materially.ย 

With Dogecoinย (DOGE) transaction charges still on the boost, will this trigger a more negative Dogecoinย (DOGE) price prediction?ย ย 

Dogecoinย (DOGE) Price Remains Stagnant Regardlessย of Spikes in Transaction

Althoughย while Dogecoinย (DOGE) has made headlines for its growing network activity, DOGEโ€™s price has remained relatively stagnant.

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The chart below shows how Dogecoinย (DOGE) network activity soared by 1400%, from 88,450 transactions on May 14ย  to 1.35 Million transactions recorded on May 22. Inย theย meantime, Dogecoinย (DOGE) price has remained relatively unchanged at $0.073 during this period.

Quite literally, Transaction Count sums up the number of transactions that occur on a blockchainย tech network withinย a specific trading period.ย 

Historically, Dogecoinย (DOGE) price has increased whenever thereย is a sustained spike in transactional activity. Hence, the worrying negative divergence betwixt Price and Transaction Count observed over raises concerns.ย 

Itย could imply that these new DRC-20 Ordinals transactions are taking up valuable block space but not adding material economic value to the network.ย 

Whales are Turning Away From Dogecoin

A major criticism of Ordinals by Bitcoinย (BTC) maximalists is the unintended consequence of growing network charges. This phenomenon now seemsย to be likewise rearing its head on the Dogecoinย (DOGE) network.ย 

Betwixt May 10 and May 22, the average transaction fees on the Dogecoinย (DOGE) network increased three-fold.ย 

Dogecoin Price Prediction - May 2023 - Total Fees
Dogecoinย (DOGE) Price Prediction โ€“ May 2023 โ€“ Total Charges. Source: IntoTheBlock

Total Charges aggregate the total amount users spend to transact on a blockchainย tech duringย a given period. Andย once transaction charges boost, it dissuades users from carrying out transactions leading to a fall in network traction and, inย theย end, a price decline.ย 

In confirmation of this thesis, the chart below shows that Large Transactions on the Dogecoinย (DOGE) network started to decline around May 13. This coincides with the period that DRC-20 Ordinals transactions started to spike.ย 

Dogecoin Price Prediction - May 2023
Dogecoinย (DOGE) Price Prediction โ€“ May 2023 โ€“ Large Transactions. Source: IntoTheBlock

Thisย  impliesย that whale investors are conducting fewer transactions in reaction to the relative network congestion and fee spikes caused by the โ€œDoginalsโ€

Whale transactions are importantย to any digitalย currencyโ€™s price prospects, supplying much- required liquidity. Hence, if the circumstances remain unchanged, DOGEโ€™s price could enter another downward spiral in the coming days.ย 

Dogecoinย (DOGE) Price Prediction:ย  The $0.07 Support is Critical

Reportsย by IntoTheBlockโ€™s In/Out of the Money Price distribution data, the bears will likely force a Dogecoinย (DOGE) price downsizing to $0.07.

Onย theย otherย hand, the 56,870 addresses that purchased 853 Million Dogecoinย (DOGE) cryptoย tokens are expected to offer considerable support at that critical $0.07 zone.ย 

Onย theย otherย hand, if that support caves as expected, then the Dogecoinย (DOGE) price will likely slump further toward $0.062.ย 

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction - May 2023
Dogecoinย (DOGE) Price Prediction โ€“ May 2023, Source: IntoTheBlock

Still, the bulls can negate this pessimistic narrative if the Dogecoinย (DOGE) price can break out over $0.078.

Onย theย otherย hand, as seen over, some of the 43,530 investors that purchased 28.9 Billion coins at the maximum price of $0.078 range could resist.ย 

This large cluster of possible break-even sellers could easily stall any price movements higher while representing a substantial resistance zone.

Onย theย otherย hand, if that resistance level fails, the Dogecoinย (DOGE) bulls can expect the price to goย up to $0.085.

Source

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