Quantitative analyst PlanB is mapping out his Bitcoin (BTC) forecast for the following 3 years.
In a new video, the analyst updates Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio, which is typically used to forecast the future price of scarce commodities.
The ratio is essentially calculated by dividing the amount of Bitcoin in circulation by the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) mined per year.
PlanB has maintained two stock-to-flow models with slightly different variations, and reveals both models have remained intact.
He points to BTC’s coming halving, which will reduce the amount of new supply entering the market in about a year, as the key catalyst that will spark an explosive Bitcoin bull run.
PlanB reveals both of his stock-to-flow models show Bitcoin’s next top will likely be in the $100,000 to $1,000,000 range.
“My forward guidance for the following 3 years is the fact that the 2024 halving is coming… and the halving increases scarcity [and] pumps the Bitcoin (BTC) price, just like it did last 3 halvings.
That yellow square is where it’s all about because those are the 2025 ranges that I gave.
And I stated it will be higher than $100,000, which is the lowest end of the bandwidth. On the other hand, in reality, I guess it will be betwixt $100,000 and $1 Million. And the stock-to-flow model is indicating $500,000.”
I know many of people do not like the range estimates. They think it’s as well wide and it’s unusable, the model is not valid, etc. On the other hand, I much prefer the wide range, which is an indication of wide volatility, than a point estimate that pretends to be accurate.”
In the short-term, PlanB reveals key metric he’s now watching is BTC’s 200-week moving average.
Bitcoin poked over the moving average past week, but has since crept back below it.
Historically, longstanding Bitcoin (BTC) bull runs have triggered after Bitcoin crosses over the line.
Bitcoin > Realized price but when Bitcoin > 200WMA? pic.twitter.com/2cO66y2yW1
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 19, 2023
Featured Image: Shutterstock/Digital Store
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