Many people believe we should have entered a bull market a long time ago. We are all tired of the bear market and the havoc it has wreaked. But the SEC’s recent attack on crypto companies has raised concerns about when we will eventually enter the bull market.
For clarity’s sake, the bull market is simply a market condition where the prices of assets, in this case, cryptocurrencies, are rising or are expected to rise. Our last bull market was in 2021. And since then, everything has gone downhill.
Bull Run’s Timeline
Bitcoin traded at its all-time high of $69,044.77 on November 10, 2021. But the bear market has seen that price crash to unbelievable lows. It currently trades at $30,026.04. So, statistics suggest that we are still in a bear market. But many believe a bull market is around the corner. The big question is: when is it starting?
Different experts have their own answers to those questions. Some experts have had doubts because of the SEC’s claims that some altcoins are securities. But we know that the crypto industry will survive the SEC’s attack. And we have already told you why in this article.
Source: Twitter
To intelligently predict the next bull run, we have to first review the history of bull and bear markets. Bitcoin is without doubt the dominant player in the market. So it makes sense to concentrate on the history of Bitcoin’s market cycles for our prediction.
Bitcoin has experienced three significant bull markets. The first significant Bitcoin bull run began in 2013. That was when Bitcoin surpassed the $1,000 benchmark. BTC peaked at $1,150 in December 2013.
However, what followed was a sharp decline the next year. Like typical bear markets, BTC saw a huge slump from its previous high. Bitcoin traded at around $171 in early 2015. This was an 85% decline from the high.
More About Bitcoin’s Bull Run Timeline
The price of Bitcoin began to rise in the latter part of 2016. Then things really picked up in 2017. The 2017 bull market peaked in December 2017, when BTC traded around $20,000 for the first time.
Interesting News about Bitcoin’s Bull Run
Here’s an interesting fact: The bull market and the following crypto winter in 2013 and 2017 had two similar factors. It took nearly a year for Bitcoin to find a bottom after the peak of the previous bull run. Additionally, the percentages of the declines from peak to bottom were nearly comparable (85% and 84%).
The latest significant Bitcoin surge took place in 2021. It was during this period that BTC hit its all-time high, as mentioned earlier. BTC’s peak in 2021 followed a familiar trend. It occurred about 4 years after the BTC peak in the 2017 bull market.
Secondly, the peak price of the 2021 bull happened in November. And BTC’s bottom price in this current bear market came a year later when it traded at $15,600. This trend is similar to the 2013 and 2017 cycles. So, we can assume that Bitcoin takes about a year to go downhill from a previous high.
Our market is unpredictable, so a prediction based on history might not be 100% accurate. But it could be a pointer. And besides, the industry is only a decade old. So we don’t have enough evidence other than three instances.
But almost every expert believes the bull run will happen in 2024 and peak in 2025. This prediction isn’t baseless speculation. It is hinged on a couple of factors. Here are two things that are influencing Bitcoin’s Bull run:
1) Regulatory Clarity
This is arguably one of the biggest determinants of the coming bull run. The SEC’s threat to our industry isn’t helping market sentiment. Investors are on the fence. But clear policies could solve all these dramas. Clear policies can result in stability for the crypto industry and boost confidence among investors. Some of the helpful policies could include:
- The acceptance of Bitcoin as a valid method of payment.
- The creation of favorable circumstances for cryptocurrency companies.
2) Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin halving is a vital part of the Bitcoin community. It occurs almost every four years. Bitcoin miners earn half as much BTC as a reward for adding a new block to the Bitcoin network when there is a Bitcoin halving. Since fewer new Bitcoin coins are entering the market, this is typically viewed as bullish for the cryptocurrency.
The next Bitcoin halving should take place in 2024. And from history, a Bitcoin bull run often follows a Bitcoin halving.
From all of these, we could see a Bitcoin bull run sometime next year. But, as mentioned earlier, there are several regulatory, geopolitical, and economic factors that could decide this. Here is the second part.
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