Insights on Bitcoin and the Crypto Market
According to Kevin Kelly, the crypto market moves in consistent cycles, and we are currently in the initial stages of a new cycle.
Main Breakdowns:
- A crypto cycle begins with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH), followed by an 80% loss in the next year.
- Bitcoin then experiences a market recovery over two years before embarking on a bullish run to attain a new ATH.
- A typical crypto cycle occurs within four years and is triggered by factors in the bigger macro business cycle.
- Bitcoin’s price peaks align with the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index, indicating a correlation between the two.
- Turning moments in the business cycle have proven to be a favorable period to increase exposure to risk assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Poised for New ATH by Q4 2024
Kelly predicts that BTC’s prices may start surging in the coming months as the ISM heads towards the end of a two-year downtrend.
Risk Factors and Closing Thoughts
- Selling pressure or price consolidation is expected in the BTC market following its strong recovery in the last 9 months.
- The business cycle may present a false bearish end or not reach its bearish end as soon as predicted.
In conclusion, Kevin Kelly’s analysis suggests that we are in the early stages of a new crypto cycle, and Bitcoin may reach a new ATH by Q4 2024. However, there are certain risk factors to consider. It is important to monitor the market and make informed decisions based on market indicators and trends.
Hot Take: The crypto market’s cycles provide opportunities for investors to capitalize on Bitcoin’s price movements. By understanding the interplay between the crypto cycle and macroeconomic signals, investors can strategically increase their exposure to risk assets during turning moments in the business cycle.
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