Estimate of Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch Increased to 75% by 2023
Following Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC, analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have updated their estimate on the launch of a spot bitcoin ETF.
- 75% probability of a spot bitcoin ETF launching in 2023
- Almost a “done deal” by the end of 2024
- SEC ruling leaves little wiggle room
- Denial politically untenable due to legal and PR loss
- Expect delays in SEC decision deadlines
The analysts expect delay orders on spot bitcoin ETF applications from BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie.
Grayscale’s win in its case against the SEC could have broader implications for spot bitcoin ETF applications. Bitcoin’s value surged following the court’s decision. The court criticized the SEC’s inconsistent treatment of spot and futures-based bitcoin ETFs. The SEC has 45 days to request a rehearing.
Hot Take
The analysts’ increased estimate of a spot bitcoin ETF launching in 2023 to 75% demonstrates the growing confidence in the future of cryptocurrency. The SEC’s ruling has put pressure on the agency to reconsider its denial of Grayscale’s proposal. With the potential for broader implications and the narrowing of the GBTC discount, the launch of a spot bitcoin ETF seems increasingly likely. The crypto market eagerly awaits further developments in this space.
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