When Can You Expect the First Spot Bitcoin ETF to be Approved?
Analysts at asset management firm Bernstein have made predictions regarding the approval of the first Spot Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). They anticipate that the pending applications for Spot Bitcoin ETFs could be approved early next year. This projection is based on a recent court ruling in favor of Grayscale, which argued that the SEC had treated its Spot Bitcoin ETF application differently from Bitcoin futures ETFs.
Court Ruling and Increased Likelihood of Approval
The court ruled in favor of Grayscale, ordering the SEC to review its application again. This ruling has been seen as a significant win and an indication that a Spot Bitcoin ETF could be imminent. Bloomberg analysts have also increased the likelihood of these funds launching this year to 75%. They believe that the court’s ruling was decisive and unexpected, leaving the SEC with little grounds for refusal.
The Middle Route for Approval
Bernstein’s analysts share this perspective, suggesting that the SEC will take a more open approach to approving these ETFs rather than finding another reason to deny them. They expect the SEC to avoid refusing applications and instead opt for a middle route. This projection aligns with the fact that the SEC must decide on the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF by January 10, 2024, and may struggle to come up with a convincing reason to deny it after the court ruling.
ETFs Driving Crypto Asset Management Industry Growth
Bernstein’s analysts also predict significant growth in the crypto asset management industry, projecting it to increase from $45-50 billion to over $500 billion in the next five years. They believe that the launch of ETFs, including a Spot Bitcoin ETF, will play a crucial role in driving this growth. Institutional investors are expected to show increased interest in crypto assets, and a Spot Bitcoin ETF will offer them a regulated option to invest directly in the flagship cryptocurrency.
Hot Take: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Could Spur Industry Growth
The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC, which is anticipated to happen early next year according to analysts at Bernstein, could have significant implications for the crypto asset management industry. It could lead to a surge in demand from institutional investors and contribute to the industry’s growth from its current level of $45-50 billion to over $500 billion within five years. A regulated Spot Bitcoin ETF would provide institutional investors with a convenient avenue to invest in Bitcoin directly. This development marks an exciting milestone for the crypto industry as it continues to gain mainstream acceptance.
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