Boutique crypto research firm Reflexivity Research provides analysis of crypto market performance
Reflexivity Research, a boutique crypto research firm, recently conducted an in-depth analysis of the crypto market’s performance over the past month. The analysis was shared through a series of posts on social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) and covered various aspects such as centralized exchange volumes, implied volatility, open interest, and more.
Centralized exchange volumes and on-chain volumes declining
According to Reflexivity Research, both centralized exchange volumes and on-chain volumes have been consistently dropping. This decline aligns with the decrease in liquidity, social media mentions, Google search trends, and overall interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Reduced expectations for significant price movements
The analysis also noted that Deribit’s implied volatility index has been on a downward trend. Reflexivity Research interprets this as a sign of reduced expectations for significant price movements in the crypto market in the near future.
Continued decline in futures open interest
Reflexivity Research highlighted that after the multibillion-dollar open interest wipeout last month, futures open interest has continued to decline. This trend is evident in both Bitcoin’s USD-denominated open interest and Bitcoin CME futures’ open interest.
US-driven demand for Bitcoin diminishing
In the analysis, Reflexivity Research pointed out that trading during US hours was a significant driver of Bitcoin’s price action in late Q2 and early Q3. However, this US-driven demand has significantly diminished and now falls below the cumulative return of APAC trading hours over the last six months.
Monitoring SEC’s response to Grayscale’s win
The analysis mentioned that the SEC has 15 days left to decide how to respond to Grayscale’s win regarding their initial denial to convert to a spot ETF. Reflexivity Research suggests that this is an important point to monitor for clues about the SEC’s upcoming decision.
Pockets of idiosyncratic bidding for select altcoins
Outside of leading digital assets, Reflexivity Research observed some pockets of idiosyncratic bidding for select mid-large cap altcoins. Examples include Maker (MKR), driven by the RWA narrative in the current higher-for-longer interest rate environment, and Chainlink (LINK), which has outperformed most large caps due to the success of CCIP and the upcoming SmartCon conference on October 2.
September marked by declines in liquidity, volatility, open interest, and volume
Reflexivity Research concluded that September was another lackluster month for the crypto markets, characterized by declines in liquidity, volatility, open interest, and volume. However, they noted that there were pockets of idiosyncratic outperformers for savvy market participants.
Hot Take: Reflexivity Research Analyzes Crypto Market Performance in September
Boutique crypto research firm Reflexivity Research recently conducted an analysis of the crypto market’s performance in September. The analysis revealed declining centralized exchange volumes and on-chain volumes, indicating a decrease in overall interest and activity in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Additionally, implied volatility has been on a downward trend, suggesting reduced expectations for significant price movements. Futures open interest has continued to decline after a major wipeout last month. The US-driven demand for Bitcoin has diminished, falling below APAC trading hours’ cumulative return. Reflexivity Research also highlighted pockets of idiosyncratic bidding for select altcoins like Maker and Chainlink. Overall, September was characterized by declines in liquidity, volatility, open interest, and volume.
By
By
By
