Grayscale Lawsuit and SEC Deadlines: Insights from VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research
Mathew Sigel, the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, recently discussed the ongoing situation between Grayscale and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In the interview, Sigel pointed out the SEC’s failure to differentiate between spot and futures-based ETFs, which could suggest inconsistent treatment under the law.
Sigel expressed support for Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC, stating that they have a strong case. Additionally, he shared his personal opinion that Gary Gensler, the current SEC chair, might step down before the year ends due to the agency’s recent legal challenges.
In an interview with the Paul Barron Network, Sigel stated, “The courts are starting to realize that we’re seeing a winning or losing streak by the SEC. I’m on paper saying that Gary Gensler will be gone before the end of the year; the clock is ticking on that.”
Sigel further commented, “But there are many examples of SEC chairs that preferred to step down after embarrassing losses rather than create a further distraction for their president. So I guess this guy’s not long for the seat. In the meantime, he’s created a very challenging legal environment.”
Potential Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF Prospects
The conversation also touched upon the possibility of approving a spot Bitcoin ETF. Sigel suggested that it could happen in the first quarter of the following year. Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg estimated a 75% likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in 2023, but Sigel found this percentage to be somewhat high.
Furthermore, Sigel discussed the potential for Ethereum ETFs and their expected inflow. He mentioned that initially, Bitcoin ETFs might see higher demand due to regulatory clarity. However, he predicted that Ethereum ETFs could become billion-dollar products within the first three to six months after receiving approval.
Hot Take: The SEC’s Treatment of Grayscale and Gensler’s Possible Departure
The interview with Mathew Sigel sheds light on the ongoing issues between Grayscale and the SEC. Sigel believes that the SEC’s failure to differentiate between spot and futures-based ETFs may indicate arbitrary treatment under the law. He supports Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC and even speculates that Gary Gensler, the SEC chair, might step down due to recent legal challenges faced by the agency.
Sigel’s insights also touch upon the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the prospects of Ethereum ETFs. While Sigel suggests a possible approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the first quarter of the following year, he believes that Ethereum ETFs could become highly sought-after products within months of receiving approval.
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