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Hogan: Analyzing SEC's 2.367% Likelihood in XRP Programmatic Sales Attraction

Hogan: Analyzing SEC’s 2.367% Likelihood in XRP Programmatic Sales Attraction

US District Court Delivers Mixed Ruling in SEC vs. Ripple Case

In a recent ruling, Judge Analisa Torres of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York provided a mixed decision in the ongoing legal battle between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs Inc. The lawsuit, initiated in December 2020, accused Ripple and its senior executives of illegally offering and selling securities. Judge Torres partially approved and partially rejected motions from both parties.

Insights into XRP Sales

Judge Torres offered specific insights into the XRP sales conducted by Ripple’s executives. She stated that these sales were made through blind bid/ask transactions on digital asset exchanges, with neither party aware of each other’s identity. This lack of knowledge made it impossible to satisfy the Howey Test’s third criterion, which determines if a transaction involves an investment contract. Additionally, she clarified that XRP does not inherently meet the requirements of an investment contract.

The judge also noted that the SEC had not convincingly argued that secondary market sales of XRP constituted investment contracts because the funds from these sales never traced back to Ripple.

Key Events Following the Ruling

  1. A trial date for the SEC’s claims against Ripple’s executives was set for April 2024.
  2. The SEC attempted to file a motion for interlocutory appeal to escalate the case to the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit without waiting for the trial’s conclusion.
  3. Judge Torres dismissed the SEC’s motion for interlocutory appeal.
  4. The SEC withdrew its aiding and abetting claims against Ripple’s executives, leading to the cancellation of next year’s trial.

Legal Proceedings and Settlement Possibilities

Legal commentator Jeremy Hogan shared insights on the case, stating that the practical implications are mostly settled despite potential future proceedings. He noted that the SEC has withdrawn remaining charges, eliminating the need for a trial in 2024. Hogan also discussed the possibility of a settlement before a Final Judgment is issued and mentioned the SEC’s intention to file appeals.

Chances of Winning on Appeal

Hogan estimated that the SEC has only a 14.2% chance of winning on appeal based on statistical data. He emphasized that the judge’s detailed opinion, based on facts, does not improve those odds for the SEC. If the SEC does win the appeal, Hogan explained that the case would be remanded back to the trial judge for further determinations.

Potential Rulings in Favor of Ripple

Hogan pointed out that the judge did not make findings on certain aspects of the Howey Test regarding “other distributions” of XRP. He suggested that there is a possibility the judge could rule in favor of Ripple on these matters. Additionally, Hogan mentioned that the judge seems to give weight to Ripple’s Fair Notice Defense.

Long and Complicated Path for SEC

Hogan outlined the lengthy path the SEC would have to navigate to win on appeal, including not settling, winning initial appeals, going through additional hearings, and winning another appeal. He calculated the SEC’s overall chance of winning to be just 2.367%, likening it to the odds of the New York Jets winning the Super Bowl.

Hot Take: Ripple vs. SEC Case Nearing an End

In summary, legal commentator Jeremy Hogan believes that although some legal proceedings may still occur, public concern over the Ripple vs. SEC case has essentially come to an end. With the SEC withdrawing remaining charges and the likelihood of settlement or favorable rulings for Ripple, Hogan states that the case is over for all practical purposes.

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Hogan: Analyzing SEC's 2.367% Likelihood in XRP Programmatic Sales Attraction