Morgan Stanley Predicts End of Crypto Winter and New Bull Run
Major investment bank Morgan Stanley has declared the end of crypto winter in a new report, stating that they believe the prolonged bear market is now behind us. According to the firm, the next halving event for Bitcoin, which is estimated to occur in April 2024, will likely ignite a new bull run in the crypto markets.
Key Points
- Morgan Stanley believes the crypto winter is ending based on historical market cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events.
- Past halvings have led to bull runs with BTC price surging to new highs for around 12-14 months post-halving.
- Current data suggests that the conditions are favorable for the next halving in 2024 to spark a new crypto spring and bull market.
- Metrics such as BTC’s 83% price drop from its peak, decreasing mining difficulty, and the price-to-thermocap ratio all indicate that the bear market has reached its trough.
- A 50% increase in BTC price from the trough typically indicates the bottom is in place before a new bull run.
- Morgan Stanley predicts significant gains for Bitcoin after the next halving, attracting renewed interest and investments into crypto.
Morgan Stanley compares the boom-and-bust cycles of the cryptocurrency market to the four seasons, suggesting that just as winter transitions into spring, the crypto markets are entering a period of renewed growth. The bank supports this assessment with various metrics indicating that the crypto winter trough has been reached. Bitcoin’s price is down approximately 83% from its peak, similar to previous bear markets. Mining difficulty has also decreased as miners give up, and the price-to-thermocap ratio signals a cycle bottom.
Bitcoin halving events, where the supply of new Bitcoin is cut in half, have historically triggered strong bull runs. Morgan Stanley points out that most of Bitcoin’s gains occur in the 12-14 months following each halving. With the next halving expected in April 2024, the firm anticipates that this market dynamic will drive a fresh surge in Bitcoin prices and usher in a new crypto spring. As Bitcoin reaches new highs, investor interest and commercial adoption are likely to increase.
The potential launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US could further boost this predicted bull run by providing institutional investors with new channels for exposure to the cryptocurrency.
If Morgan Stanley’s analysis proves accurate, the crypto industry may see better days ahead after a prolonged downturn. The transition from winter to spring could soon become a reality in the market over the next year.
Hot Take: Crypto Winter Comes to an End as Morgan Stanley Predicts New Bull Run
According to a report by major investment bank Morgan Stanley, the crypto winter appears to be ending, signaling the start of a new growth phase for cryptocurrencies. The bank cites historical market cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events as evidence for their prediction. Previous halvings have led to bull runs with BTC price surging to new highs for around 12-14 months post-halving. With the next halving estimated to occur in April 2024, Morgan Stanley expects this reliable market dynamic to drive significant gains in Bitcoin and attract renewed interest and investments into crypto. If their analysis holds true, the crypto industry could experience a positive turnaround after a prolonged bear market.
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