The Bitcoin Market: Recent Trends and Key Factors
Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown an upward trend, with prices fluctuating between $34,100 and $35,000. While some experts predict a period of sideways movement, others anticipate a potential price decline. Several developments have contributed to Bitcoin’s price gains, including Grayscale’s achievements and the listing of BlackRock’s ETF on the DTCC site. Another notable trend is the migration of large Bitcoin holders, known as whales, to major cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. Interestingly, this shift coincided with a sudden surge in Bitcoin’s price, surpassing the $35,000 mark.
What to Expect from the November 1st Fed Meeting?
If you’re wondering how Bitcoin might be impacted, one critical factor to watch is the actions of the Federal Reserve, specifically the statements made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Here are some key events to keep an eye on:
1. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting
Scheduled for October 31 and November 1, 2023, this meeting is expected to have a minor impact on both stock prices and the price of Bitcoin. The focus will be on Jerome Powell’s remarks regarding the U.S. economic outlook during his speech.
2. Potential Rate Hike in December
Market participants currently anticipate no changes to the federal target rate in the upcoming FOMC meeting. However, there is uncertainty regarding a potential rate hike in the subsequent meeting on December 13, 2023. Fed officials have signaled their intent to maintain a vigilant stance on monetary policy and consider raising rates further if necessary based on incoming data related to inflation and unemployment.
Bitcoin Price May Retrace—What Next?
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is little anticipation of a change in the Federal target rate in the upcoming FOMC meeting. However, there is a 19.8% probability of a 0.25% rate hike from the current range of 550-575 basis points. Any indications in Powell’s speech regarding rate hike decisions for future meetings could potentially impact Bitcoin’s price, similar to the effect on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indices.
There are also reports suggesting a potential pause in the Bitcoin price rally due to on-chain developments, such as profit booking by short-term Bitcoin holders. The market remains uncertain about whether Bitcoin can break through the $35,000 resistance level in the coming week.
Hot Take: Potential Impact of Fed Meeting on Bitcoin
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting holds significance for the Bitcoin market. Jerome Powell’s statements regarding economic outlook and potential rate hikes can influence Bitcoin’s price. While the current meeting is not expected to have a major impact, indications for future meetings could trigger responses in Bitcoin’s price similar to other indices. It is crucial to closely monitor Powell’s speech and any remarks about monetary policy decisions. Additionally, on-chain developments and resistance levels will play a role in determining the direction of Bitcoin’s price movement.
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