Bitcoin’s November Rally: Will It Continue?
This month, Bitcoin (BTC) reached $35,000 and has been hovering around that level. However, the Bitfinex Alpha report discusses the likelihood of the rally continuing into November.
60% Likelihood of a Bullish November For Bitcoin
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has closed positively in October eight times since 2013. Out of these eight instances, November remained positive for Bitcoin five times. This suggests that there is a 60% chance of November being bullish for Bitcoin after a green October. It’s important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results, but it does indicate a pattern.
An Uptick in Derivatives Market Activity
The Bitfinex Alpha report also reveals increased bullish sentiment in the options market. The Options Call Open Interest surged by 80% in October, indicating a belief among traders that Bitcoin’s price will rise. On October 27, the Bitcoin options market reached a new all-time high, with total put and call positions reaching $16.35 billion.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Booking Profit
While long-term Bitcoin holders are holding onto their coins, short-term holders are cashing in on profits. When Bitcoin hit $35,000, there was a surge in the short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures on-chain profit and loss. This selling pressure from short-term holders may keep the price of Bitcoin sideways in November. However, the report suggests that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a bull market.
Hot Take: Bitcoin’s Future Looks Promising
Despite some uncertainties, such as short-term holders booking profits and potential resistance at $35,000, Bitcoin’s future appears promising. Historical data and increased activity in the derivatives market indicate a positive outlook for November. While past performance is not indicative of future results, these patterns and market trends suggest that Bitcoin may continue its rally in the coming month.
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