Expectations for Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
You heard from James Seyffart, a Bloomberg Intelligence ETF research analyst, that he remains confident in his prediction of a potential spot bitcoin ETF approval window between January 8 and January 10, 2024, with a 90% chance of approval by January 10.
Strategic Delays by the SEC
Seyffart believes that the SEC aims to approve multiple applications for spot bitcoin ETFs simultaneously to avoid giving any single firm a competitive advantage. He predicts a mass approval strategy to likely occur in January.
SEC’s Cautious Approach
According to Seyffart, the SEC is cautious about not playing favorites in the ETF approval race and aims to approve all applications at once if they decide to approve them, based on reliable sources and extensive research.
Precedence of Ether Futures ETFs
The SEC’s simultaneous approvals for various issuers of Ether futures ETFs create a precedence that supports his belief that a similar approach could be taken for spot bitcoin ETFs.
Influence of Grayscale’s Legal Victory
Grayscale Investments’ recent legal win against the SEC has been highlighted by Seyffart as a significant factor that might influence the SEC’s decision, forcing it to reconsider its previous reasons for denying ETF applications.
Grayscale’s Unique Position in Approval Process
Seyffart speculates that Grayscale might not be among the first to receive approval due to its unique situation and ongoing discussions with the SEC.
Different Scenario for Spot Ether ETFs
The prospect of spot Ether ETFs is viewed as a different challenge by Seyffart due to potential arguments the SEC might use to delay Ether ETFs, such as differences in market maturity and Ethereum’s proof-of-stake model.
Complexity of ETF Approval Process
Seyffart explained the complexities of the ETF approval process, involving both the SEC’s Trading and Markets division and the Corporate Finance division, as well as market response and adoption challenges.
Market Response and Adoption Uncertainties
Seyffart cautions that major brokerages and banks might adopt a cautious approach, potentially slowing the immediate uptake of these ETFs, despite significant long-term potential for billions in inflows. Stocks like BlackRock are involved.
Hot Take: What to Expect with Bitcoin and Ether ETF Approvals from the SEC
In conclusion, blockchain enthusiasts are eagerly awaiting the anticipated approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, expected in early 2024, while Ether ETF approval processes may take a bit longer due to differences in the underlying technologies and market maturities. Grayscale’s legal victory has cast a positive spotlight on the approval process, signifying a potential turning point for the cryptocurrency investment landscape.
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