Understanding Bitcoin’s Market Moves
For the majority of cryptocurrency enthusiasts, deciphering the movements of the market, especially with bitcoin, can seem like a mystery. However, bitcoin tends to follow a predictable pattern with each market cycle.
Market Cycles Take Money from Traders
If someone claimed to know what bitcoin would do next, many would dismiss them, believing that the market is designed to take money from traders. Unfortunately, this is a true statement, as only a small percentage of traders consistently profit from the market. Nevertheless, bitcoin’s market cycles continue to unfold.
The Macro View of Bitcoin
Steve Courtney, the host of the Crypto Crew University YouTube channel, holds a macro view of bitcoin’s price movements. He has studied the macro charts and has been a trader for many years. In his latest video, Courtney illustrates bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles from the beginning, focusing on the 2-week chart.
Two Phases of Bitcoin Markets
Courtney points out two distinct phases in bitcoin’s bull markets. Phase 1 occurs after bitcoin hits a bottom and establishes market structure. Phase 2, which is the current phase, builds price structure upon the support of Phase 1. Once the price exits Phase 2, the final bull run stage begins before reaching a market top.
Bitcoin’s Retesting of the Base
It is important to note that bitcoin has historically always returned to test the base of each phase. According to Courtney, if this pattern holds true, the price should retrace within the next 140 days and test the $30,000 level. This could present an excellent buying opportunity.
No Certainties, Only Probabilities
Courtney emphasizes that certainty is rare in the market, and it is best to consider probabilities. While there is a possibility of bitcoin skipping the retest of the bottom in Phase 2, this would indicate an unhealthy price structure and could lead to a more significant crash.
Hot Take: Bitcoin’s Predictable Market Cycles
Cryptocurrency traders often find bitcoin’s market movements mysterious, but there is a pattern that repeats itself with each market cycle. Steve Courtney from Crypto Crew University analyzes bitcoin’s macro patterns and identifies two distinct phases in its bull markets. Historically, bitcoin has always retested the base of each phase, suggesting the potential for a retracement to $30,000. Although nothing is certain in the market, understanding these patterns can help traders navigate bitcoin’s price movements more effectively.
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