Is the Spot Bitcoin ETF Already Priced In?
With the anticipation of an approved spot Bitcoin ETF reaching fever pitch levels in the opening days of 2024, the question arises: Is it already priced in? Some believe that it is, as BTC has seen continuous gains over the past two months. However, many Bitcoin advocates argue that the event hasn’t been priced in yet and expect BTC to soar even higher if and when a Bitcoin ETF is approved.
An Easy Way for Retail Investors
A Bitcoin ETF would finally provide traditional retail investors with a simple way to gain exposure to BTC without needing crypto exchanges or wallets. While the SEC has rejected previous proposals for a Bitcoin ETF, the entry of Wall Street titan BlackRock into the race suggests that it will finally happen.
Fresh Capital Entering the Market
All signs point to an approval, which could lead to a wave of fresh capital entering the market. Traders and analysts are bullish, expecting an immediate impact on BTC’s price following the SEC’s green light. Experts predict that a Bitcoin ETF approval will change Bitcoin forever by integrating it into the global economy.
Predictions and Expectations
Analysts predict that BTC’s price will likely jump by 10% in the day or two following the first Bitcoin ETF’s approval. There may be a brief period of consolidation and correction before BTC resumes its upward trajectory. Some experts believe that BTC could surpass its all-time high price of $69,000 by spring.
The Potential Impact on BTC
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, agrees that BTC is poised for continued success after a Bitcoin ETF approval. He highlights the opportunity for American assets worth nearly $14 trillion to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Additionally, inflows into existing Bitcoin investment products suggest that many U.S. investors are waiting for U.S.-based ETFs to become available before investing in Bitcoin.
Conflicting Views
While some analysts are optimistic about the price impact of a Bitcoin ETF, others are more cautious. Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, believes that there is a 75% chance of a “sell the news” event, where BTC’s price drops due to investors selling off the cryptocurrency after the approval. However, if ETF inflows are substantial enough to offset this outflow, it could be a net positive for BTC.
Hot Take: The Future of BTC with a Bitcoin ETF
The approval of a Bitcoin ETF has generated intense speculation about its impact on BTC’s price and the market as a whole. While some believe that the event has already been priced in, many experts expect BTC to experience significant growth once a Bitcoin ETF is approved. The integration of Bitcoin into the global economy and the opportunity for traditional retail investors to gain exposure to BTC are seen as game-changing developments. However, conflicting views exist regarding whether the price impact will be immediate or result in a “sell the news” event. Only time will tell how BTC will fare with a Bitcoin ETF.
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