Matrixport Analyst Predicts SEC Rejection of Bitcoin ETF Applications
Analyst Markus Thielen from Matrixport has made a prediction that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will reject all spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications this month. Thielen believes that SEC Chair Gary Gensler is not supportive of the crypto industry, which goes against market expectations.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications Falling Short of Requirements
Despite updated filings and meetings between the SEC and ETF applicants, Matrixport predicts that the SEC will reject all spot Bitcoin ETF applications in January. Thielen highlights that the applications still do not meet a critical requirement. He also mentions that the current five-member commission leadership, which is crucial for approval, is dominated by Democrats.
Gensler Calls for More Compliance in Crypto Industry
Thielen suggests that Gensler is advocating for more compliance in the crypto industry due to the presence of bad actors and non-compliance. While Gensler acknowledges that approving a Bitcoin ETF would benefit the industry, Thielen argues that there is no political incentive to do so.
Galaxy Digital Disagrees with Matrixport’s Prediction
Galaxy Digital, an applicant for a spot Bitcoin ETF, disagrees with the Matrixport report. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, finds the report bewildering and nonsensical.
Potential Impact of Rejected Applications on Bitcoin Price
If the SEC denies spot Bitcoin ETF applications in January, Thielen believes it could significantly impact the price of Bitcoin. He predicts cascading liquidations and a potential 20% drop in the price, pushing it back to the $36,000 to $38,000 range. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at just under $43,000.
Positive Forecast for Bitcoin in 2024
Despite the potential rejection of ETF applications and short-term volatility, Thielen remains bullish on Bitcoin in 2024. Matrixport expects the value of Bitcoin to surpass $42,000 by the end of the year, taking into account historical patterns and the Bitcoin halving event.
Hot Take: SEC Expected to Reject Bitcoin ETF Applications, Impact on Price
Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen predicts that the SEC will reject all spot Bitcoin ETF applications in January. This goes against market expectations, as SEC Chair Gary Gensler is not seen as supportive of the crypto industry. If the applications are rejected, Thielen believes it could lead to cascading liquidations and a potential 20% drop in the price of Bitcoin. However, Galaxy Digital disagrees with this prediction. Despite the potential rejection, Thielen remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, expecting its value to surpass $42,000 by the end of 2024.
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