The Future of AI: Survey Reveals Less Dire Outlook
Despite widespread concerns about the existential threat of artificial intelligence (AI), a new survey conducted by AI Impacts with researchers from top universities paints a more optimistic picture. The survey, which gathered the perspectives of over 2,700 AI experts, found that only 5% believed there was a high chance of human extinction from AI.
In contrast to this, a poll conducted in August 2023 found that 61% of Americans view AI as a threat to humanity. Industry leaders have also expressed their concerns about the potential risks associated with advanced AI systems.
AI Continues to Evolve
Despite these concerns, AI development continues to progress. Companies are actively working on developing more advanced systems, and there is a push to explore the boundaries of the technology.
Survey respondents predicted that major creative milestones would be achieved by AI within the next decade. This includes tasks such as coding entire payment websites from scratch and creating songs that are indistinguishable from today’s hits. However, challenges like mathematical theorem proving may take longer to overcome.
Predictions for High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI)
The survey also revealed that the possibility of High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) becoming a reality has been brought forward by 13 years. There is now a 50% probability that HLMI will be achieved by 2047. Similarly, the Full Automation of Labor (FAOL) horizon, controversially predicted by Elon Musk, has shifted earlier to 2116.
When asked about the ability of AI to match all human abilities, researchers forecasted a 50% chance by 2047, which is 13 years sooner than previously predicted.
Prioritizing AI Safety Research
While researchers remain cautiously optimistic, there is a recognition of the need for prioritizing AI safety research. Around 70% of respondents agreed that this should be a priority. Researchers also expressed concern about risks such as misinformation, inequality, and mass surveillance enabled by AI.
Although the survey shows a less dire outlook for AI’s impact on humanity, around 40% of respondents still believe there is a minimum chance of human extinction from advanced AI. This highlights the importance of ongoing study and consideration of AI ethics and safety.
Hot Take: A Balanced View on the Future of AI
While there are varying perspectives on the future impact of artificial intelligence, the recent survey provides a more balanced view. It reveals that while concerns exist, experts are less convinced about the existential threat posed by AI. The survey highlights the evolving nature of AI and the potential for significant advancements in various fields. However, it also emphasizes the need to prioritize safety research and address ethical concerns surrounding AI. As technology continues to evolve, maintaining a cautious yet optimistic approach is crucial for ensuring its responsible development and beneficial integration into society.
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