A Bitcoin ETF Approval Could Send Bitcoin Price to $200,000 by 2025, Says Standard Chartered
A bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval has the potential to revolutionize the cryptocurrency market and propel bitcoin’s price to $200,000 by the end of next year, according to analysts at Standard Chartered. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to approve multiple applications for a spot bitcoin ETF before its January 10 deadline. Standard Chartered believes that this approval will mark a significant moment for institutional money entering the bitcoin market and drive substantial flows and price growth for the cryptocurrency. The bank estimates that between $50 billion and $100 billion worth of bitcoins will be held in spot bitcoin ETFs by the end of 2024.
Comparing Bitcoin ETF Approval to Gold ETPs
Standard Chartered draws a parallel between the introduction of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF in 2004 and the potential impact of a bitcoin ETF approval. Just like gold ETPs, the first bitcoin ETFs are expected to start small and be limited to non-U.S. markets initially. However, the bank anticipates that bitcoin will experience similar price gains as gold did after ETP holdings matured. While it took seven to eight years for gold prices to increase 4.3 times after the introduction of gold ETPs, Standard Chartered believes that bitcoin’s gains could materialize over a shorter period of one to two years due to a faster development of the bitcoin ETF market.
The Current State of Bitcoin
As of now, bitcoin is trading just below $47,000, reaching a level last seen in April 2022. The cryptocurrency has already increased by 10% in 2024 following a remarkable surge of 157% in 2023. While some investors express concerns that the market may be overestimating the immediate impact of a potential ETF approval, they acknowledge that the launch of bitcoin ETFs and the inflow of traditional fiat currencies into these funds will likely be the primary drivers of bitcoin’s price this year.
Hot Take: Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Price of $200,000 by 2025
Standard Chartered predicts that if a bitcoin ETF is approved and significant inflows occur as expected, the price of bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. The bank draws a comparison to the introduction of gold ETPs and expects similar price gains for bitcoin, but over a shorter period due to a faster development in the bitcoin ETF market. With all eyes on the SEC’s decision regarding spot bitcoin ETFs, institutional money entering the market could normalize bitcoin participation and drive substantial flows and price growth for the cryptocurrency.
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