Bitcoin Halving: Will History Repeat Itself?
The recent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC has shifted the focus of cryptocurrency market participants to the upcoming BTC halving in 2024. This event, which reduces the reward for miners by half, has historically triggered a bull market.
However, leading up to the halving, Bitcoin has experienced high volatility in the past. In 2016, there was a surge followed by a correction immediately after the halving. In 2020, deep declines occurred two months before the halving due to the COVID-19 crash.
Correction Before Halving: Similarities with 2019
The current BTC price chart shows technical similarities with the 2019 fractal. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could fall by as much as 53% and reach $23,000 again.
In the months leading up to the 2020 halving, there were dramatic events. After reaching an all-time high in 2017, Bitcoin experienced a bear market and reached a bottom at $3,215 in December 2018. This resulted in an 84% decline.
A rebound began but was interrupted by a crash due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $4,000 and formed a double-bottom pattern.
Will the 2019 Fractal Play Out in 2024?
The current technical situation on Bitcoin’s long-term chart is similar to that of 2019. The recent increase in price coincides with the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF and could serve as a local peak.
If a deeper correction occurs, Bitcoin could drop to $28,000 or even $23,000 if it follows the previous cycle’s decline of 53%. However, based on time similarity, a mature bull market may not begin until January 2025.
Hot Take: Bitcoin Halving and Market Speculation
The upcoming BTC halving in 2024 has sparked speculation about its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. While historical patterns suggest a bull market after the halving, the high volatility leading up to the event raises questions about possible corrections.
Analysts are closely monitoring the technical similarities between the current BTC price chart and previous cycles, particularly the 2019 fractal. The possibility of a significant decline cannot be ruled out, with potential support levels around $28,000 and $23,000.
Ultimately, only time will tell if history will repeat itself in 2024. As an investor, it’s important to stay informed and make decisions based on careful analysis and professional advice.
By
By
By
By
