Bitcoin’s Retracement and Support Levels
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a retracement, with increased selling pressure pushing the price towards a crucial support region. This support region includes the 200-day moving average and the middle boundary of the ascending channel. The price action within this range will play a significant role in determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
Technical Analysis: The Daily Chart
When analyzing the daily chart, it is clear that Bitcoin’s recent correction has resulted in a notable decline. However, the downward momentum has been temporarily halted at the $39K level, which represents a crucial support range. This support range, along with the 200-day moving average, is providing strong support for buyers. It is likely that the price will find support in this range and enter a phase of sideways consolidation before resuming its bullish trend.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, it can be seen that Bitcoin faced rejection at the $48K resistance zone, leading to a breach of the lower boundary of the ascending flag pattern. This indicates bearish sentiment in the market. However, Bitcoin has reached a critical support region at $39K, which aligns with the 0.5 level of Fibonacci retracement. This support level is expected to prevent further downward movement and could trigger a bullish retracement.
On-chain Analysis
The Realized Cap analysis based on UTXO Age Bands provides insights into the distribution of realized capitalization in the Bitcoin market. Currently, Bitcoin is in a corrective phase due to selling pressure from spot ETFs and recent price surges. However, an analysis of volume acquired within three months suggests that Bitcoin has not yet reached its yearly peak. This indicates that major investors may continue their bullish trajectory after a short adjustment period, potentially leading to a new all-time high.
Hot Take: Bitcoin’s Future Trajectory
Bitcoin’s retracement and support levels are crucial in determining its future trajectory. The current support range, including the 200-day moving average and the middle boundary of the ascending channel, is providing strong support for buyers. If this support holds, Bitcoin is likely to enter a phase of sideways consolidation before resuming its bullish trend. However, a break below the 200-day moving average could reintroduce fear into the market and lead to further declines. On-chain analysis suggests that major investors may continue their bullish trajectory after a short adjustment period. Overall, the price action within these pivotal zones will play a significant role in shaping Bitcoin’s mid-term prospects.
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