Investment Bank Predicts Approval Timeline for Ethereum ETF
According to investment bank TD Cowen, a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) is likely to be approved in the United States between late 2025 and early 2026. The bank previously suggested that approval could come after the November 2024 election. However, TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group now believes that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not approve a spot Ethereum ETF in 2024 due to political considerations.
Gensler’s Political Considerations
TD Cowen highlights that SEC Chair Gary Gensler needs the support of progressive Democrats to advance his agenda in an election year. The bank argues that approving a spot Ethereum ETF would not be beneficial for Gensler given the backlash from progressive Democrats over the recent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Additionally, if Gensler seeks a different role, such as Treasury secretary in President Joe Biden’s second term, he would still require progressive support.
Gensler’s Incremental Approach
TD Cowen suggests that Gensler is not in a rush to approve an Ethereum ETF, as he wants more experience with recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. The bank believes that Gensler’s overall approach to cryptocurrency regulation is to proceed gradually and cautiously. Therefore, there is no need for a contentious battle over an Ethereum ETF approval.
Spot Ethereum ETF Applications
Several companies, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have applied for a spot Ethereum ETF. However, the SEC has repeatedly delayed its decision on these applications. TD Cowen explains that the SEC can take its time reviewing these proposals and may eventually reject them, leading to either new applications or litigation.
Approval Deadline and Crypto Experts’ Views
TD Cowen predicts a late 2025 or early 2026 approval deadline for a spot Ethereum ETF, even if broader crypto market structure legislation is not enacted in 2025. This timeline aligns with the end of Gensler’s term in June 2026. Crypto experts have varying opinions on the likelihood of an Ethereum ETF approval, with some optimistic that it could happen as early as May, the original deadline.
Hot Take: The Path to an Ethereum ETF Approval
While investment bank TD Cowen believes that a spot Ethereum ETF will not be approved by the SEC in 2024, it provides a clearer timeline for potential approval between late 2025 and early 2026. The bank highlights the political considerations surrounding SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s decision-making process and suggests that he prefers an incremental approach to cryptocurrency regulation. Despite numerous applications for a spot Ethereum ETF, the SEC can take its time reviewing them and may ultimately reject them, leading to further delays. Ultimately, the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF remains uncertain, with crypto experts expressing differing views on its likelihood.
By
By
By
By
By