The Future of an Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) according to Coinbase Research 🚀
Coinbase Institutional recently released a note suggesting that the approval decision for a spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) might bring unexpected outcomes for investors. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is evaluating the possibility of an ETH ETF with a similar approach to the BTC ETFs approved earlier this year.
Key Insights from Coinbase Research:
- Coinbase predicts that the correlation between spot Ethereum prices and CME futures is strong, mirroring the relationship seen in Bitcoin markets.
- Despite uncertainties surrounding timely approval, Coinbase believes that the question is not “if” but “when” for a US spot ETH ETF.
- The odds of approval are currently low, but a positive surprise from the SEC is on the table.
According to Coinbase, the market might be underestimating the likelihood of an Ethereum ETF approval, with potential political and legal factors playing a role in the decision-making process.
Potential Catalysts for Approval:
- The market’s anticipation of a rejection might lead to favorable sentiment if overturned through litigation.
- Commissioner Uyeda’s comments on the spot BTC ETF approval process could impact the timing and approval of spot ETH ETFs.
While the probabilities currently stand at around 16-24%, Coinbase suggests that the actual odds of approval could range between 30-40%, signaling a possible turning point for the Ethereum market.
Hot Take: The Future of Ethereum ETF Approval 🌟
Despite the uncertainties surrounding the approval of an Ethereum ETF, Coinbase’s research points to a potential “surprise to the upside” in the SEC’s decision-making process. Stay tuned for possible developments in the coming months as the crypto landscape continues to evolve.
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