Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
Bitcoin speculation continues to be a hot topic of conversation in the cryptocurrency world this year. With the market showing signs of volatility, it’s essential to analyze the trends and patterns to make informed decisions about your investments. Understanding the historical context and comparing previous cycles can provide valuable insights into what to expect next in the crypto space. Let’s delve into the current state of Bitcoin speculation and explore how it may impact the market moving forward.
Just some good ol’ fashioned #Bitcoin dubious speculation! Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE: … “hey everyone thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we’re going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on intothe cryptoverse decom we’re going to be making some comparisons in this video to Prior cycles and whatnot I just want to remind people that every cycle will be slightly different and there’s not a single cycle previously that you can look back to a formal cycle and say that that’s how it played out exactly again so just remember there will likely be some nuances to every single cycle but in this video I do want to compare similar types of conditions similar outcomes and really kind of talk about what we’ve been talking about for the last several months and if you’ve been following this channel for the last several months one of the things we we really went over a lot was the idea of Bitcoin actually getting a local top about a month before the having and the reason that we suggested that this was a likely outcome it was actually for several reasons right it was actually for several reasons one simple reason and this is not even the main reason but one simple reason was just rewinding the clock and and looking at a similar type of not really a similar event but an event where everyone was really hyped up about it was the the merge for ethereum and we basically saw the exact same thing happen back then we saw a a top occur one month before the merge and then the actual La the actual merge it ended up being a lower high and then we went down to a lower low and then we ended up putting in a lower high yet again the month after the merge and we talked about something like something similar could play out for Bitcoin where you put in a high one month before the having you then put in a lower high actually going into the having and then one month following the having you put in another lower high now back during the having I don’t think you were going to find many people talking about this outcome I I think a lot of people were mainly focused on the supply shock and and they were bull posting at at $70,000 I mean again if you rewind the clock that is what most people were saying and so the idea of a summer lull kind of fell on deaf years for a lot of people and one of the things and I’ve seen this play out so many times and it’s important to just be careful about it is every single May it seems like there’s this idea people say sell and May and go away okay this happens a lot it happens a lot but what really what often actually happens is late April you see Bitcoin sell off and then when may starts because we just had a several week selloff everyone feels pretty bearish right because now it’s May everyone knows the Mantra Salin man go away and then you end up getting a bounce into may just after a lot of people sort of capitulate at that low and we said back then that the first test of the of the bull market sport band the 20we estimate in the 21 kma that we would likely get a bounce because often times that’s exactly what happens when when Bitcoin gets close to that bull market support band it will often bounce up right before actually going below it we’ve seen it happen many many times in a lot of these different scenarios we’ve seen it happen so much and that’s why if you go back to late April what I said back then was you you have you sort of set your low back over here in March and then you’re going to sweep that low by late April early May sweep that L and we talked about this and guys guys I have no problem you know admitting when I’m wrong I I actually am wrong quite a bit but this is something that that actually really did play out in a path that we discussed a lot and one of the things about it is if you overlay the eight-week moving average I think this is the let me get the eight week this the three we if you get the eight-week moving average one of the outcomes that we talked about in sort of comparison to 2023 and to 2019 was that you know you lose the 8we ese here you go down to the bull Mark sport band it Wicks down to it it then bounces back above the 8we moving average right we talked about that a lot where you have this rally back above the 8we SMA and it gets everyone super excited again and then and what ends up happening right it just ends up resolving back down below the bull market support B and so that’s the issue that I think a lot of people they fall into this trap they they basically what they what they do is they feel pretty bearish in late April early May because you just had a sell off and then they sell right here and then you get a bounce into May and everyone on on on Twitter and and YouTube everyone’s screaming from the rooftops that Bitcoin is is breaking out and and it’s super super bullish and and it ends up being a lower high that occurs you know often times in May it could be early June and then the SU L actually sets in and I mean if you go back to the videos from a month or two ago we we outlined this scenario quite you know in quite a lot of detail and so far it has played out so basically what you see is we’ve had a series of lower highs and we’ve also had a series of lower lows now then it sort of raises the question well what does this compare to the most like what is it most similar to because again it’s not going to be an exact match for anything but what is it most similar to now if you look at ethereum if you look at ethereum you’ll notice that there was a low set here in June and then you had a high a lower high and then another lower high right a high a lower high and then another lower high it then Consolidated below the 20we estim for a while and then it got back above it my argument was always that if eth goes back up it’s only because Bitcoin is lifting it up and if you overlay right if you overlay e Bitcoin onto this chart you’ll see what I’m talking about right yes it’s true that ethereum has gone up but it’s only because Bitcoin was lifting it up as the E Bitcoin valuation has been dropping basically for that entire time so to me it it’s similar it’s like a similar idea what happened with eth USD but you can see that eth was actually below its bull market sport band for all this test and then it didn’t get back above it until the following year in 2023 so then what if we were to just look on the Bitcoin chart is it similar to 2023 at all right are there any similarities to 2023 and there are certainly some I think some of the similarities are you have sort of a a local top here in April about the same time in the year that this top occurred right in March it’s about a month removed and then so you had an April top and then you had a rally that that basically topped out in June July here you had a rally that topped out in like sort of May June so it’s kind of shifted by one month but there are some nuances there are some slight differences and we actually talked a lot about these back in 2023 you actually set a slightly higher high you see that you set a slightly higher high and you never actually set a lower low which is an important detail right it never actually set a lower low it set a higher low if you were to look at 2019 what you will find is that you ended up setting a lower low right eventually set a lower low which was a which was sort of a Divergence between 2023 and 2019 because again in 2023 Bitcoin never set that lower low when it came close to it right when it came close to it it did not I mean this low right here the week of June 12th was 24770 and then this low right here was 24915 so technically speaking and being technically correct is the best way to be correct it was a higher low so I think one of the issues right now for Bitcoin is that it’s and again I’m not saying it can’t overcome it it’s just that unlike 2019 or sorry unlike 2023 it was a lower high followed by a lower low but in 2023 it was a higher high followed by a higher low so you see the difference now if you ignore that part of it we still saw very similar things play out we had sort of this big rally where we topped out you know well above the 8we SMA right here we then fell below it back to the bull Mark SP band right there same thing right here we then saw Bitcoin pop back up to the top of the range and it swept the highs here it popped back up but it did not actually go above the prior High then we saw capitulation below the bull market support ban back in 2023 it occurred in August for Bitcoin now this time it this year it occurred in July again it’s just being shifted over by one month again the top the the local top so far this year was in March but in 2023 was in April and so back in 2023 Bitcoin fell below the bullmark sport ban in August this time it this year it occurred in July so you can sort of see that this whole process is shifted out by approximately one month and so then it raises the question well what would theoretically come next what would theoretically come next well it depends on if it follows that the path of 2019 and 2023 because what actually happened in 2019 and 2023 next was very similar to each other it was the the the step after what happened next that was actually the difference and that I think is what is important to hold in on okay so in 2019 in 2019 after this move down you will see that Bitcoin basically hung out around the lows for a while it did get a wick back up near the bull market support Ban two weeks later but it wasn’t a weekly close up there it was just sort of a wick up but then two weeks after that Bitcoin swept the low that it had put in on the initial capitulation below the 20we moving average you see that you have an initial capitulation here and then it swept that low so this capitulation was late September it swept that low one month later in late October now the same thing actually occurred in 2023 and we talked a lot about this as well you first put in your low which was not a lower low right from prev previously it was just a slightly higher low but then you still swept that low about a month later cuz we dropped here in mid August we then swept that low in midep right now in both cases after Bitcoin swept the low right in both cases it then rallied back up to the bull market support band The 20we SME the 21 we EMA it rallied back up to it the following month right so capitulation in 2023 was in August you can see it was back up to it started its rally back up to the bullmark sport and it started it in September okay in 2019 the capitulation below the bullmark sport was in September it started the rally back up to the bullmark sport ban in October right so just one month later so again I don’t know if it’s going to play out the same way but let’s suppose that it does so far Bitcoin has been unable to get back up to the 20we moving average this is what often happens when you go below it you don’t just typically go right back above it there are some cases but it’s not the most common you spend some time below it kind of like what’s been happening recently okay so if we were to assume it were to play out like either 2019 or 2023 then the expectation would be about a one month after it drops below here the 20we SMA right about one month later so either so you can see it drop below the ese in sort of mid to late June really the first real move below the bull Mark Sport and its TIY was not until early July so you might expect if it were to play out like 2019 or 2023 a sweep of this low sometime in late June or sorry Late Late July or early August that is what the expectation would be if it were to follow what 2019 and 2023 did remember these these ideas are not meant for you to like like trade it’s not it’s not like you’re supposed to sit there and and try to time a a sweep of a prior low and then if it doesn’t happen you get the pitchforks out right these are just theoretical ideas as I’ve said before I think the best way to navigate the cryptoverse is to DCA into into Bitcoin at risk levels that you are comfortable with or if you don’t even want to bother with the risk levels you know you can just DCA out whatever you’re comfortable with that’s ultimately likely going to be the best way to navigate Bitcoin over a longer period of time I think unfortunately a lot of people get so focused on what’s going to happen next right rather than being worried about what happens next month be worried about what happens over several years okay but again you know this is a YouTube channel I’m going to talk about my opinion on bitcoin and and what I think it could do and so that’s what I do but I feel like a lot of people try to use this to then go try to time the market and and unfortunately that just often does not work out that well um so that’s if it were to play out like 2019 Andor 2023 but the thing that I I think sort of separates 2019 and 2023 is that in 2019 when Bitcoin rallied back up to the bull market support B it got rejected in 2023 when it rallied back up to it it broke through so you can see there are there’s a clear difference the the the the structure going into it was the same right the structure going into it was the same for the most part but then the outcome was different but technically speaking while it was very similar structure going in there were some slight differences and one of those slight differences happened to be that when Bitcoin when Bitcoin got that Wick below about a month later it actually set a slightly lower low you see that it it set a slightly lower low from where it had gone in June and so you know when I was watching this back in 2023 I was looking at this low and it did not actually sweep it okay so what would be sort of a similar thing it’s it’s unfortunately really difficult to say you could argue that the low from April has already been swept but I think if you were to go to something a little bit more um you know a little bit further back like let’s said the February low it would have to go all the way back down to about 50k now remember when Bitcoin had this correction in 2019 and again I’m not saying it has to happen but when Bitcoin had this correction in 2019 you know this first the the the first real move back up actually occurred after a 35% correction this cycle right there’s been a lot less volatility it was only after about a 23% correction so you can see there are some differences I think what will be interesting is to see you know what happens what happens with Bitcoin later this month and in early early August because if it plays out like either 2019 or 2023 then you would expect some type of back test of that bull market support band sometime in like August September time frame and it doesn’t even mean it can’t Wick up to it between now and then I mean in 2023 you know we did get Wicks back up to it that would have corresponded to say next week okay so and even in 2019 you can see it we actually had something very similar right it wasn’t that first week back you know when we were down here but the second week you had a wick back up near the 21 we EMA I mean how we’re already almost there right I mean the 21 we EMA is at 60
By
By
By