Perception of Recession Despite Positive Indicators
A recent report by Jessia Dickler for CNBC revealed that despite positive economic indicators, many Americans believe the U.S. is currently in a recession. The perception of an economic downturn is primarily fueled by rising costs of living and financial strain.
The June survey conducted by Affirm, which involved 2,000 adults, indicated that a significant number of respondents believe the recession began in March 2023 and may persist until July 2025. Vishal Kapoor, senior vice president of product at Affirm, attributed this sentiment to the impact of persistent inflation on households, leading to low confidence in the economy and a quest for financial stability.
- Survey findings by Affirm
- Conducted in June with 2,000 adults
- Most believe recession started in March 2023
- Perception of recession until July 2025
Public Perception of Economic Situation
The Guardian/Harris poll from May, as referenced in the CNBC report, highlighted that 56% of respondents also share the belief that the U.S. is currently experiencing a recession. This perception persists despite the consistent growth in the country’s GDP over recent years, with the National Bureau of Economic Research defining a recession as a substantial decline in economic activity affecting the whole economy.
Despite positive economic indicators, such as GDP growth, many Americans are grappling with the following:
- Struggles with high prices
- Depleted savings
- Increased reliance on credit cards
Financial Struggles Highlighted by Experts
According to Joyce Chang, chair of global research at JPMorgan, the current economic situation has been termed a “vibecession” at the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit in May. While homeowners and individuals with financial assets have seen significant benefits, a large section of the population has felt marginalized, contributing to the widespread perception of economic challenges.
As noted by CNBC, other factors indicating financial strain include:
- Rise in credit card delinquencies
- New York Federal Reserve statistics
- Approximately 8.9% of delinquent credit card balances
- Anticipated difficulties in debt payments for middle-income households
Hot Take: Understanding the Economic Climate
Despite positive economic indicators, many Americans perceive the U.S. to be in a recession due to rising living costs and financial strain. Experts point to a disconnect between economic growth and public sentiment, with a substantial portion of the population feeling the effects of the current economic climate.
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