Bitcoin Holds Above $87K: Why This Could Be the Bottom Nobody Expected
? The Unexpected Pause That Changed Everything
Listen, if you’ve been following Bitcoin’s wild ride over the past month, you know it’s been absolutely brutal. BTC went from absolutely crushing it at $126,000 back in October to nearly touching $80,600 by late November. That’s a gut-wrenching 36% collapse in just a few weeks. But here’s what’s catching everyone off guard right now: Bitcoin holds above $87,000 as ETF inflows surge and market steadies, signaling what could genuinely be a local bottom forming after one of the most intense sell-offs of the year[1][2].
I’m not here to pump your bags or pretend everything’s magically better. But the data-and I mean the real on-chain metrics, liquidation patterns, and derivatives positioning-is pointing toward something interesting. The market might actually be finding its footing, and if you understand what’s happening beneath the surface, you’ll see why major players are quietly positioning themselves right now.
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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin recovered from $80,600 lows to trade around $87,000-$88,300 as of late November, recovering over 4% in just two days
- Perpetual funding rates flipped negative for the first time in a month-a historically reliable signal for local market bottoms
- Open interest unwound sharply to 683,000 BTC from peak of 752,000 BTC, indicating leverage has been flushed from the market
- Major institutional players are executing massive structured bets targeting $100K-$112K by year-end
- ETF positioning shows selective optimism despite broader market fear (Fear & Greed Index at just 19)
? The Numbers Don’t Lie: What Just Happened to Bitcoin
Let me walk you through the mechanics of what we’ve been witnessing. On November 11, Bitcoin was rejected hard at $106,453. That rejection turned into an absolute bloodbath over the next ten days. By November 21, we hit the local low around $80,600[1].
Then something changed.
Around Sunday (November 23), Bitcoin staged what looked like nothing special at first-just another bounce. But here’s the kicker: it went from $80,000 to over $87,000 in just a few hours[4]. That wasn’t organic, gradual buying. That was someone’s massive wall getting lifted, and once it did, everyone watching the level saw it too.
The thing is, this kind of price action usually attracts liquidations, but here’s where it gets interesting. Most of those leveraged shorts that were built up during the rally got flushed during the crash. When Bitcoin does eventually break decisively above $87,000-and I mean decisively-you’re looking at liquidation cascade potential that could spark what traders call a "short squeeze"[2]. On Binance’s BTC/USDT pair alone, there’s massive density of leveraged positions concentrated right above $87,000. If we push through there, watch out. The volatility could get absolutely wild.
Here’s what the technical picture looks like right now:
The RSI on the daily chart bottomed out around 31, well into oversold territory. But-and this matters-it’s now pointing upward, which suggests downside momentum is genuinely exhausting[1]. The MACD lines are converging and eyeing a bullish crossover. These aren’t guarantees. They’re just signposts suggesting the immediate panic selling might be losing steam.
? The Whale Behavior That Nobody’s Talking About
You’ve probably heard about "whale watching" before, but do you actually know what matters? It’s not just whether they’re buying or selling-it’s which wallets are moving coins and whether their actions are coordinated or chaotic.
Here’s what we’re seeing: mid-sized wallets (the folks holding between 100-1,000 BTC) have been accumulating. That’s not huge in absolute terms, but it matters psychologically because these aren’t retail FOMO buyers. These are sophisticated players who have the capital to hold through drawdowns and the patience to wait for entries. They’re voting with their cash that $85,000-$87,000 is worth buying[1].
But-and there’s always a "but"-the really big whales (1,000-10,000 BTC wallets) continue to distribute. They’re still selling into any bounces. This creates this weird dynamic where you’ve got structural support from smart money and structural selling from the mega-holders. It’s like two different markets fighting each other. Until we see the largest whales stop distributing and start accumulating, we can’t really confirm a full trend reversal. What we can say is that the bottom-bouncing mechanics are in place.
? The Funding Rate Signal Nobody Wants to Ignore
I’ll be straight with you: perpetual funding rates just flipped negative for the first time in a month[2]. And here’s the thing about that specific signal-historically, when this happens and sustains, it’s marked local market bottoms. Not every time, but often enough that professional traders watch it religiously.
Think of funding rates like this: when they’re positive, shorts have to pay longs to hold their positions. It’s expensive to bet against Bitcoin. When they flip negative, the economics reverse, and suddenly shorts are getting paid to hold. That flip tells you something crucial-the people with real leverage are no longer convinced the market’s going down. The one-percenters, the smart money, they’re rotating.
Open interest data backs this up[2]. We peaked at 752,000 BTC in leveraged positions on November 21 at the bottom. Fast-forward a few days, and we’re down to 683,000 BTC. That’s a massive unwind. For context, before the October crypto liquidation cascade started properly, open interest was sitting around 741,000 BTC. We’re now cleaner than we were pre-cascade. That means less leverage is sitting in the market ready to cascade, which, weirdly, is actually bullish for price stability going forward.
? Here’s Where the Smart Money Is Betting
Honestly, this is where it gets interesting. Someone on Deribit-one of the biggest derivatives exchanges for crypto-just executed a 20,000 BTC notional "call condor" worth $1.76 billion[7]. Before you glaze over at the jargon, let me explain what that means in human terms.
A call condor is basically a bet that says: "Bitcoin’s going up, but not too much." It profits if Bitcoin ends the year between $100,000 and $112,000. If it goes above $118,000, the position loses. This is institutional-grade positioning, and it’s structured. It’s not some trader YOLO-ing their account. This is someone saying, "We see recovery, but we’re capping our upside expectations because we’re not convinced about new all-time highs."
That’s actually refreshingly honest positioning. It acknowledges the recovery thesis without getting carried away. And it’s being done at scale. When you’re moving that much capital into a structured bet, you’re doing it because you believe in the thesis enough to stake serious money, but you’re disciplined enough not to get greedy.
? The ETF Inflows Narrative That’s Rewriting the Story
Here’s something that’s easy to miss in all the noise: while retail is absolutely terrified (the Fear & Greed Index is at 19, basically "extreme fear")[5], institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs have been quietly steady. This is actually the definition of "smart money doing the opposite of the crowd."
When everyone’s scared to death and Bitcoin’s down 25% from highs, that’s when institutions start nibbling. They’re not catching falling knives; they’re just asking themselves, "Is this a buying opportunity after a temporary panic?" ETF inflows aren’t surging at euphoria prices. They happen after crashes, when nobody wants to touch the asset.
The macro backdrop has been absolutely terrible, don’t get me wrong. Cooling interest in AI stocks, uncertainty about Fed rates, corporate treasuries liquidating positions-all of that created the perfect storm for a crash. But here’s the thing: perfect storms end. The uncertainty around Fed policy will resolve. The reallocation out of crypto into stocks will stabilize. And when that happens, institutions that held through the crash or added to positions during the crash will be perfectly positioned[4].
? The Historical Parallels Nobody Wants to Admit
Here’s where I might sound like a broken record, but it matters: we’ve seen this movie before. Back in 2018 and 2022, after crashes, Bitcoin closed weekly candles below the 50-week moving average twice in a row. That pattern has historically preceded another 50% drop[5].
Right now? Bitcoin’s about to close its second consecutive weekly candle below that moving average. Is the cycle broken? Are we different this time? Or are we about to drop to $40,000?
Honestly, I don’t know. But here’s what I do know: if Bitcoin holds above $87,000 through the rest of November and into early December, that would be the first sign the pattern might be breaking. If we drop below $80,000 and retest lower levels, well, the historical precedent says we could see 50% additional downside from here. That’s not fear-mongering; that’s just pattern recognition from 2018 and 2022.
? The Short-Squeeze Risk That Could Catch Everyone Off Guard
Remember I mentioned the liquidation clusters above $87,000? Here’s what could happen if we push decisively through:
Imagine Bitcoin breaks above $87,000 and starts running toward $90,000. Those leveraged short positions start sweating. Exchange algorithms start automatically closing positions. That buying pressure from forced liquidations creates more upside momentum. That momentum triggers more shorts to cover. That covering creates more buying. You get a cascade.
It’s not guaranteed, and it’s not necessarily sustainable. But if it happens, we could see a snap rally to $92,000-$95,000 before the market takes stock of what just happened and decides whether to continue or pull back[2]. These squeezes usually look insane while they’re happening, and in retrospect, look tiny.
? What I’m Actually Watching Right Now
Real talk: I’m watching whether mid-sized wallets keep accumulating. I’m watching whether the largest whales capitulate or continue selling. I’m watching whether funding rates hold negative or flip positive again. And I’m watching whether we actually break above $87,000 with volume or if it’s just afternoon liquidity doing its thing.
The $87,000 level is basically the "line in the sand" right now. If we stay above it, it suggests some form of stability. If we drop below $85,000 convincingly, the $80,000 test probably comes back into play. And if we somehow drop below $80,600 (the recent low), then yeah, we’re looking at testing $72,000-$75,000 support zones.
Bitcoin’s Current Price Action - Your Questions Answered
Q1: What does "Bitcoin holds above $87K" actually mean for investors?
A1: It means Bitcoin has stabilized around $87,000 after a severe crash from $126,000. For investors, this suggests the immediate selling panic might be exhausting, and the market could be forming a temporary floor. It doesn’t guarantee recovery, but it does signal reduced liquidation risk in the short term.
Q2: How do perpetual funding rates help predict Bitcoin’s next move?
A2: Funding rates indicate whether shorts or longs are paying to hold positions. When they flip negative (shorts paying), it historically signals that leveraged traders don’t believe the downtrend continues. This has preceded local bottoms before, though it’s not foolproof-always combine it with other indicators.
Q3: Why are ETF inflows important when the market’s crashing?
A3: ETF inflows during crashes signal institutional confidence-they’re buying when retail panics. This usually precedes recovery phases because institutions have longer time horizons and deeper pockets than retail investors. When institutions add to positions during fear, it often becomes the foundation for the next rally.
Q4: What’s a "short squeeze" and why should I care about the $87,000 level?
A4: A short squeeze happens when forced liquidations of short positions create buying pressure, driving prices higher and triggering more shorts to close. The $87,000 level has massive short interest, so a decisive break above could trigger a cascade rally to $90,000-$95,000 quickly-not necessarily sustainable, but volatile.
Q5: Is Bitcoin really at a bottom, or could it crash further?
A5: Bitcoin might be at a local bottom (temporary floor), but that’s different from the bottom. Historical patterns from 2018 and 2022 suggest if the weekly candle closes below the 50-week average again, another 50% drop is possible. Current support sits at $80,000-$82,000, with deeper support around $70,000-$72,000.
Q6: How do on-chain metrics like whale wallets help predict price direction?
A6: Large wallets (whales) moving coins signals accumulation or distribution. Mid-sized whales are currently accumulating while mega-whales still distribute-creating conflicting pressure. When both align (all accumulate or all distribute), you get clear directional conviction. Right now, we’re stuck in a tug-of-war.
- https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-holds-near-87-000-as-on-chain-metrics-hint-at-a-possible-local-bottom-202511250928
- https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/25/bitcoin-faces-short-squeeze-risk-above-usd87k-as-funding-rates-hint-local-bottom
- https://coinspot.io/en/analysis/bitcoin-recovers-to-87000-after-the-worst-week-of-the-year/
- https://forklog.com/en/bitcoin-rebounds-to-87000-but-the-market-remains-in-extreme-fear/
- https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-usd-strugles-at-87k-usd-after-3-5-b-usd-etf-outflows
- https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-price-today-btc-price-rebounds-to-87k-as-bullish-ascending-channel-forms-but-death-cross-keeps-bears-in-control
- https://fortune.com/2025/11/26/nobel-laureate-paul-krugman-bitcoin-meltdown-trump-approval-waning-power/
