Bitcoin Analyst Predicts Fall to $30,000 Before Uptrend
A crypto analyst known as CryptoCon believes that Bitcoin must drop back to $30,000, a critical support level, before it can resume its upward trend. This prediction is based on historical price performance, specifically the fact that no Bitcoin cycle has reached its recent high without revisiting the monthly least square moving average (MA). The current MA is at $30,358, and according to CryptoCon, if past performance is any indication, Bitcoin could likely dip to this level before experiencing a sharp recovery.
The Importance of the MA for Bitcoin Prices
CryptoCon emphasizes that the MA has consistently acted as a floor for Bitcoin prices, even during times of high volatility. The only exception was the 2019 bear market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. While some observers argue that Bitcoin has already bottomed out, CryptoCon believes there isn’t enough data to support this claim. Based on previous price behavior, the analyst predicts that the coin could drop as low as $30,000 by February or March.
Wall Street Accumulates BTC Despite Contrarian Position
Despite this prediction, recent developments suggest a more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. The approval of multiple spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the SEC and major institutions like BlackRock buying BTC in large quantities have raised hopes of a sharp recovery to January 2023 highs. However, CryptoCon’s contrarian position challenges these expectations and suggests that prices may move against public sentiment. It remains to be seen whether this retracement will stabilize Bitcoin and contribute to a more sustainable long-term trend.
The Fear-and-Greed Index Supports Bullish Sentiment
According to Coinstats’ Fear-and-Greed Index, the sentiment among Bitcoin bulls remains positive, with the index reading at 55, up from 50 last week. This indicates an expectation of price increases in the near future.
Hot Take: Bitcoin’s Path to Recovery Faces a Hurdle
While some Bitcoin holders may be anticipating a rapid ascent to $70,000, CryptoCon’s analysis suggests a different trajectory. Based on historical patterns and the importance of the monthly least square moving average, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin must first fall back to $30,000 before it can resume its uptrend. This contrarian view challenges recent optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s approval by the SEC and institutional accumulation. As investors eagerly await further price confirmations, it remains to be seen whether this retracement will strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term trend or present a hurdle on its path to recovery.
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