Muted Reaction to False Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Suggests Already Priced-In
QCP Capital suggests that the muted reaction to the false spot Bitcoin ETF approval may indicate that the event is already priced-in. This highlights Ethereum as a potential “laggard play.” The analysts at Singapore-based QCP Capital addressed this in a Telegram post on Jan. 10, stating that the failure to break through the resistance area after the news broke could be seen as a signal that an ETF approval is mostly priced in.
Ethereum Identified as a Potential Laggard Play
Amidst the uncertainty, attention is now turning to Ethereum (ETH) as a potential laggard play. The performance of the ETH/BTC cross supports this notion, as it briefly dipped below the Jun. 22 low before rebounding above the 0.051 support.
“Options vols are also elevated now due to the ETF news event, and we expect vols to move lower and normalize once an ETF approval is out of the way. We see support at 40 – 42k, and resistance around 48.5k.”
– QCP Capital
Selling Spot-Futures Basis Spread for Risk-Free Return
QCP Capital suggests a strategy of selling the spot-futures basis spread for a risk-free 12-17% annual return if held to maturity. The analysts also note that options volatility is currently elevated due to the ETF news event but is expected to normalize once the uncertainty regarding ETF approval is resolved.
Potential BTC Drop Below $38,000 and Calls for Investigation
QCP Capital does not rule out the possibility of BTC dropping below $38,000. They consider this level to be “decent for a long position” in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving in April. Meanwhile, legal representatives from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are calling for an investigation into potential market manipulation, and American lawyers and senators are demanding transparency from the SEC regarding false data.
SEC’s X Account Compromised
According to the official statement from the social network, the SEC’s X account was compromised due to an unidentified individual obtaining control over a phone number associated with the regulator through a third party. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $45,668.
Hot Take: False Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval and Potential Implications
The false spot Bitcoin ETF approval has sparked reactions and discussions among market analysts. QCP Capital suggests that the muted reaction to this event indicates that it may already be priced-in. This has shifted attention towards Ethereum as a potential laggard play. The analysts also highlight the selling of spot-futures basis spread as a strategy for risk-free returns. Additionally, there are calls for investigations into potential market manipulation and demands for transparency from the SEC. The compromise of the SEC’s X account further adds to the intrigue surrounding this event. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it remains crucial to stay informed and analyze these developments carefully.
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