Market Underestimating Potential of US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, Analyst Suggests
A senior analyst at K33 Research, Vetle Lunder, has sparked discussions by claiming that the market is not fully appreciating the transformative potential of US Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Ethereum (ETH) futures-based ETFs. In this analysis, we will explore Lunder’s five key points and their implications for the cryptocurrency market.
U.S. Spot ETF Approval Odds at an All-Time High
Lunder’s first point focuses on the probability of US Spot ETF approvals, which he believes have never been better. He suggests that this is crucial for a potential disruption in the cryptocurrency market.
BTC Trading Patterns Before and After BlackRock
Lunder highlights the price trajectory of BTC, noting that it returned to pre-announcement levels by investment giant BlackRock. This indicates the market’s resilience and maturity in the face of significant news.
Strong Inflows Expected with ETF Competition
The third point is the most intriguing, with Lunder expecting fierce competition and simultaneous launches of US ETFs, surpassing the initial trading days of BITO and Purpose in terms of inflows. He supports this claim with data from Purpose and BITO.
Relationship Between BTC Investment Flows and Prices
Lunder emphasizes the symbiotic relationship between BTC investment vehicle flows and price trends. His data shows that significant net inflows correlate with market strength, while extreme inflows significantly boost BTC’s performance.
ETF Approvals’ Potential Impact on BTC Price
Lunder’s final point projects the potential impact of ETF approvals, suggesting that US spot ETFs could accumulate at least 30,000 BTC in the first 10 days of trading, leading to a 66% BTC rally to $42,000. However, he acknowledges that this projection does not consider other market dynamics.
Hot Take:
Lunder’s insights challenge the prevailing sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, which has been lackluster recently. He remains bullish, citing forthcoming ETF developments and the upcoming BTC halving, and sees current levels as an opportunity for aggressive accumulation. Traders and investors should closely monitor these developments and regulatory decisions in the coming months.
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