Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Price Outlook
The current price outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows a slight conflict, with Bitcoin growing by 0.58% to $41,784.51 and Ethereum slipping by 0.48% to $2,467.64. However, the conversations around a potential price bottom are invalidated by Deribit Options data.
Implications of Implied Volatility (IV)
Insights from Deribit reveal that the Implied Volatility (IV) of Ethereum dropped from 64% to 47%, while Bitcoin’s volatility dropped from 55% to 47%. This trend was driven by Call selling. The drop in Ethereum’s IV resulted in massive selling trades for the coin, indicating a further drop in its price. On the other hand, Bitcoin is experiencing intense accumulation as traders take advantage of the lower prices.
Ethereum’s Bottom and Bitcoin’s Accumulation
Based on the data presented, it appears that Ethereum’s bottom is still uncertain, while Bitcoin’s drawdown may be clearing up with the current accumulations.
Impact of Grayscale on Market Sentiment
The approval and launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF have been important updates in the US stock market. However, the dumping of Grayscale’s GBTC has shifted the longevity of Bitcoin in investors’ portfolios. Data shows that coins transacted have an average holding time of 9 months, with a total of 371,930 BTC transacted at an average price of $42,663.24.
Grayscale’s influence as one of the largest Bitcoin holders may continue to shape market sentiment. However, their 1.5% fee might discourage existing holders from moving their coins to other funds, leading to further selloffs. This could result in continued volatility in the spot and Options market for the rest of the month.
Hot Take: Market Uncertainty Persists Amid Conflicting Data
The broader digital currency ecosystem remains uncertain as market bulls try to support Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. Grayscale’s GBTC outflows and conflicting Options data contribute to the overall market sentiment. While Bitcoin shows signs of accumulation, Ethereum’s bottom is still unclear. The dumping of Grayscale’s GBTC has impacted Bitcoin’s longevity in investors’ portfolios, and the spot and Options market volatility may continue as a result.
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