NUPL: Bitcoin Accumulation Continues
The NUPL indicator, which measures the difference between unrealized profit and loss, suggests that Bitcoin accumulation is currently taking place. The indicator’s colored chart helps identify different emotional states of investors throughout the Bitcoin cycle. Currently, Bitcoin’s NUPL is in the yellow range, indicating investor optimism and the early phase of a bull market.
NUPL and 3 Assumptions on the Way to Bitcoin ATH
Based on the NUPL chart, we can make assumptions about the future of the Bitcoin market. First, assuming Bitcoin has left the fear zone, if deep declines occur, the market could enter another accumulation phase. Second, the current accumulation phase is expected to last around 7 months, based on previous patterns. Third, the peak of the current cycle is estimated to occur approximately 12 months after entering the late phase of the bull market.
Bitcoin Accumulation Will Last Another 6 Months
Assuming Bitcoin accumulation began in mid-June 2023, and considering the average accumulation time of 32 weeks, it is estimated that the early bull market will last until the end of January 2024. Adding the average duration of the late bull market (12 months) suggests that the peak of this cycle will be in the second half of January 2025.
Criticism and Optimism
The calculations based on the NUPL indicator deviate from the traditional interpretation of the Bitcoin 4-year cycle. The timing and duration of the late bull market differ from previous cycles. However, despite these differences and uncertainties, the ongoing Bitcoin accumulation is fueling investor optimism.
Hot Take:
The NUPL indicator suggests that Bitcoin accumulation is currently underway, indicating an early bull market. Based on historical patterns, it is estimated that this accumulation phase will last another 6 months, with the peak of the cycle expected in January 2025. While there are criticisms and uncertainties surrounding these predictions, the ongoing accumulation is keeping investors hopeful for the future of Bitcoin.
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