What are bias strategies on Bitcoin (BTC)
– Bias strategies are based on the historical average trend of a market to determine when to buy or sell an asset.
– Due to the limited history of Bitcoin, data from 1 January 2018 through 31 July 2023 will be used for analysis.
Annual and Monthly Biases on Bitcoin (BTC)
– The annual bias graph shows the average movements of Bitcoin throughout the year, with October, February, and July being the best months to buy.
– The monthly bias graph reveals that the end of the month and the beginning of the following month are the most positive days for buying Bitcoin.
Year-to-year Bias of Bitcoin (BTC)
– Analyzing the monthly and annual biases broken down year by year, it is confirmed that October is a great month to buy Bitcoin.
– February also shows positive results, except for 2022.
Backtest of a trading system bias on Bitcoin (BTC)
– A strategy is developed based on the information obtained, buying $100,000 worth of Bitcoin in February and October and closing the trades on the first day of the following month.
– The backtest results show good profitability and an overall profit of about $160,000, although the sample size of trades is small.
Backtest of a trading system bias of the highs on Bitcoin (BTC)
– Another strategy is tested, making entries based on the highest highs of the last 100 hours in February and October.
– This strategy results in more trades, with an average trade exceeding $600 and a total profit of $68,000.
Conclusion: bias trading system on Bitcoin (BTC)
– Both strategies demonstrate good results and confirm the potential for recurring behavior in February and October.
– The certainty of future bias behavior is unknown, but further testing and evaluation can be done to determine their effectiveness.
Hot Take:
Bias strategies based on historical trends can be a useful tool for crypto traders, providing insights into favorable months and days for buying or selling Bitcoin. However, it’s important to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. These strategies should be used as part of a comprehensive trading plan and further testing should be conducted to assess their effectiveness. Happy trading! – Andrea Unger
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