Crypto Analyst Warns of Potential Bitcoin Pullback Before Halving Event
A well-known crypto analyst is cautioning Bitcoin (BTC) investors that the leading cryptocurrency could experience further downside before the upcoming halving event, where miners’ rewards are halved. The analyst, Rekt Capital, shares his insights on social media, suggesting that Bitcoin has entered a “danger zone” historically associated with corrections of 20% to 40%. According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’s current price pattern shows similarities to the 2016 cycle, indicating a potential dip before the halving event. The trader also predicts when Bitcoin could reach the peak of the current bull market cycle.
Bitcoin in the “Danger Zone”
Rekt Capital warns that Bitcoin has officially entered what he calls the “danger zone,” which historically precedes significant retracements before halving events. He notes that Bitcoin typically experiences these retracements between 14 and 28 days prior to halvings. With approximately 26 days remaining until the next halving, Bitcoin has already pulled back by nearly -18% since last week. Rekt Capital emphasizes that it is uncertain whether the retrace bottom has been reached or if there is more downside potential. However, he believes that there is still time for additional downside given Bitcoin’s current position in the danger zone.
Similarities to the 2016 Cycle
Rekt Capital draws parallels between Bitcoin’s current price pattern and its behavior during the 2016 cycle. He highlights that in both cases, Bitcoin began its pre-halving retrace around 28 days before the halving event. Notably, during the 2016 cycle, Bitcoin initially produced a long downside wick before retracing further. Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin has recently exhibited a similar long downside wick on its pre-halving retrace, suggesting the possibility of further downward movement. However, he also acknowledges that Bitcoin must maintain its current highs to avoid a fate similar to the 2016 cycle, where the initial reaction was strong but short-lived.
Predicting the Peak of the Bull Market
Rekt Capital offers insights into when Bitcoin could reach the peak of the current bull market cycle. He notes that Bitcoin tends to hit a bull market top approximately 266 to 315 days after breaking its old all-time high. As Bitcoin recently surpassed its previous all-time highs, Rekt Capital estimates that the next bull market peak could occur in late November 2024 or late January 2025. However, he mentions that historical data suggests each cycle takes longer to reach its peak. Therefore, he proposes alternative timelines, pushing the peak of the current bull market to December 2024 or mid-February 2025.
Bitcoin’s Current Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,410, reflecting a decrease of over 3% in the last 24 hours.
🔥 Hot Take: Potential Pullback Before Halving Event Raises Concerns for BTC Investors
The warning from crypto analyst Rekt Capital has raised concerns among Bitcoin investors who are anticipating the halving event. While Bitcoin has entered a “danger zone” historically associated with significant retracements before halvings, it remains uncertain whether the bottom has been reached or if there is more downside potential. The similarities between Bitcoin’s current price pattern and its behavior during the 2016 cycle further contribute to concerns about a potential dip before the halving event. Additionally, predicting the peak of the current bull market presents challenges due to historical data suggesting longer cycles. These factors combined create a sense of caution among investors, highlighting the need for careful observation and analysis in the coming weeks.
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