Bitcoin (BTC) has started a new week, month, and quarter with a strong bullish move above $28,000. This is the cryptocurrency’s best weekly close since mid-August. October is often a month of significant BTC price gains, so there is excitement about what might happen in the coming weeks. However, macro triggers may not immediately impact BTC price as October begins with a quiet phase for US macro data and the government averting a shutdown. Bitcoin fundamentals are not yet reflecting the spike in spot price, as mining difficulty is expected to decrease at its next automated readjustment on Oct. 2.
Bitcoin had a sudden growth spurt at the end of the week, reaching new local highs of $28,451. While some traders anticipate a potential reversal, others point to increasing ask liquidity on spot order books as evidence of further upward movement. Bitcoin now faces resistance at the 200-week moving average at $27,970 and must overcome this hurdle to continue its upward trend. Despite uncertainty in recent months, Bitcoin network fundamentals are not mirroring the bullish sentiment on spot markets. Difficulty is expected to drop by 0.7% at its next readjustment on Oct. 2 after reaching record highs.
In contrast to last year’s sideways movement in October, this year feels different and more like a classic “Uptober.” Bitcoin has not finished October lower than it started since 2018, and market commentators are optimistic about further price increases this month. While Bitcoin network fundamentals do not currently reflect the bullish sentiment, some argue that hash rate follows price rather than the other way around. The US macro data is expected to have a calmer start to October, with the main event of avoiding a government shutdown already occurring. Market participants will be closely watching for any clues from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the next FOMC meeting on Nov. 1 to decide interest rate policy.
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