Analyst Predicts Bitcoin’s Downside Trajectory in September
According to Benjamin Cowen, an analyst and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, Bitcoin is expected to continue its downward trend in September leading up to next year’s halving. By comparing Bitcoin’s performance throughout the years, Cowen predicts doom for the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin’s Recent Performance and Price Movements
Currently trading at around $25,860, Bitcoin has been under pressure in recent weeks. After a surge of almost 60% from November 2022 lows, the coin retraced from its July 2023 peaks of around $31,800.
September Outlook for BTC Bulls
Following an impressive performance in July, Bitcoin experienced a bearish trend in August. By the end of the month, it had dropped approximately 20% from its highs in July 203. A significant scare was triggered on August 17 due to losses across the board.
Cowen’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin lost 11.31% in August, slightly lower than the average loss of 11.71% in the past two pre-halving years. However, the outlook for September looks even worse according to the analyst.
Historical Trends and Bitcoin’s Potential Decline
Based on historical data, September tends to be a month of contraction before halving, with an average return of -17.29% before Bitcoin halves. If this trend continues, Bitcoin may drop to $21,400 by the end of September. However, if we consider Bitcoin’s performance in the last two halvings, which had an average return of -5.66%, the coin could fall to around $24,400 by the end of the month.
Bitcoin’s Current Situation
While Bitcoin supporters remain optimistic in the medium to long term, the recent dump on August 17 pushed the coin to new lows. Although there has been a slight recovery in the second half of August and the first week of September, it is clear that Bitcoin still faces challenges.
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin prices are still within the bearish candlestick of August 17, indicating the current price action. Additionally, trading volumes remain relatively low despite the higher prices.
Hot Take: Potential Recovery with SEC’s Approval of Bitcoin ETF
In hopes of a recovery, supporters are relying on the approval of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This derivative product would allow institutions to gain exposure to Bitcoin, potentially driving demand and boosting its price.
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