Bitcoin’s Current Position
Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to surpass the $38,000 mark recently but remains comfortably above the $35,000 support zone as the market anticipates the next significant move.
Most market participants agree that Bitcoin is poised for a rally towards a new all-time high. This optimism is driven by potential spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval and next year’s halving event.
In a November 17th TradingView post, prominent crypto analyst TradingShot suggested that Bitcoin is potentially gearing up for a parabolic rally as it enters the pre-and post-halving phase of its market cycle, comparing the current cycle to previous ones.
Bitcoin’s Next Move
The present analysis places Bitcoin in the pre-and post-halving phase, with the fourth halving event expected in April 2024. During this phase, Bitcoin’s price tends to touch or surpass the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, with the 0.382 Fibonacci level acting as a crucial support.
Currently, Bitcoin is positioned at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, set at $50,000. According to the TradingShot model, the cryptocurrency is expected to reach this level imminently or within 3-4 months following the upcoming halving event. The analysis also underscores the importance of maintaining support above the 0.382 Fibonacci level of $27,000.
“Once the 0.786 Fib breaks, BTC should test the $69,000 All Time High (ATH) in a matter of weeks,” said TradingShot.
Bitcoin’s Future Trajectory
The analysis also pointed out historical cycles and highlighted diminishing returns theory. With increasing adoption, a realistic projection suggests no more than a 1.382 Fibonacci extension equivalent to slightly over $120,000 or a more conservative estimate at $100,000.
The future trajectory of Bitcoin’s value depends on various fundamental factors including adoption evolution and capital inflow if ETF approval occurs. However, recent volatility was triggered by news surrounding ETF approval despite SEC delays in approving spot ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Global X.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was valued at $36,359 with daily gains of about 0.20% and weekly losses of almost 2%. Technical analysis suggests bullish sentiments dominate with moving averages for ‘strong buy’ and oscillators for sale. At present, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase with a focus on reclaiming the $37,000 spot.
Hot Take: The Future of Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to remain stable above key support levels while analysts project a potential rally toward new all-time highs in light of upcoming halving events and ETF approvals. Despite recent volatility due to news around ETF approvals and SEC delays, there remains an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s future trajectory based on historical market cycles and fundamental factors driving adoption and capital inflow.
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