A Glance at Historical Returns
– History tends to repeat itself in Bitcoin’s pre-halving years.
– The years 2014, 2018, and 2022 displayed remarkably similar patterns.
– In 2022, there was a belief that Bitcoin had found its bottom, similar to 2018.
The Pre-Halving Pattern
– A recurrent pre-halving pattern emerges, with a rally followed by a fade.
– Market unpredictability means outcomes can’t be predicted with certainty.
– Events like the collapse of FTX can disrupt historical patterns.
Comparing Pre-Halving Years
– Peak occurred around day 161 in 2011, day 193 in 2015, day 177 in 2019.
– Current cycle’s peak was on day 194.
– Average of 2015 and 2019 returns can provide insights into 2023.
The Current Times
– The SEC’s decision on the Bitcoin spot ETF could impact the cryptocurrency.
– Bitcoin’s buzz tends to fade towards the end of the pre-halving year.
– Bitcoin’s price could potentially fall to a range between $23,000 and $16,000.
The Altcoins Outlook
– Ethereum, Cardano, and Litecoin display patterns consistent with past behaviors.
– Total market cap in 2023 is on track with the combined average of 2015 and 2019.
– Optimistic predictions of an “Alt Season” in 2022 proved to be misplaced.
Hot Take
– While the cryptocurrency market is dynamic, patterns in pre-halving years suggest consistency.
– Investors should be cautious and adopt a “wait and watch” approach.
– Time will reveal whether the “this time it’s different” narrative holds water.
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