A Big Price Move for Bitcoin on the Horizon, According to On-Chain Analyst
An esteemed on-chain analyst predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) is on the brink of a significant price movement after several months of stagnation.
Key On-Chain Metric Signals BTC Breakout
- Pseudonymous analyst Checkmate, with a substantial social media following, points out a crucial on-chain metric for Bitcoin that indicates an imminent exit from the consolidation phase.
- The analyst notes that BTC’s sell-side risk ratio for short-term holders is decreasing rapidly, suggesting a dwindling supply of sellers’ ammunition.
- Specifically, the focus is on short-term holders who have held BTC for less than 155 days, as they are currently steering short-term price movements.
Bitcoin’s Coiled Spring Effect
- Checkmate metaphorically describes Bitcoin as a coiled spring, hinting at the potential for imminent action due to the ongoing range contraction leading to an anticipated range expansion.
- The diminishing sell-side risk ratio for short-term holders serves as a strong indicator for an approaching market shift, according to the analyst.
US Bond Market Influence
- The looming Bitcoin price movement is also being tied to the developments in the US bond market, particularly the trend in 10-year yields (US10Y).
- Checkmate emphasizes that if the US10Y rate creeps closer to 5%, it could spell trouble for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Bond Market Dynamics and Bitcoin Movement
- Historically, when bond yields surge, bond prices decline as they face competition from newer, higher-yielding bonds, affecting financial stability.
- At the time of writing, US10Y stands at 4.394% while Bitcoin is priced at $68,643.
Anticipated Market Response
- Higher bond yields could trigger a ripple effect across risk assets and financial markets, potentially impacting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
- Market experts are closely monitoring bond market developments to gauge potential risks and market responses.
Hot Take: The Impending Shift in Bitcoin’s Trajectory
The landscape for Bitcoin appears poised for a significant change, driven by on-chain indicators and external market influences. As the cryptocurrency market braces for a potential move, investors and analysts are closely watching for signals of the next big market shift. Stay informed and prepared for the evolving dynamics of the crypto market.
Sources:
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/stable-for-now
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