Bloomberg Analysts Raise Approval Odds for Bitcoin Spot ETF to 75%
Bloomberg senior analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, have increased their chances of the first Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in the US to 75%. This adjustment in their prediction follows a recent court ruling against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which overturned the regulator’s denial of Grayscale’s conversion of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin ETF. Balchunas and Seyffart have cited the court’s “unanimity and decisiveness” as unexpected factors that led to their revised outlook.
Key Points:
- Bloomberg analysts raise approval odds for Bitcoin spot ETF to 75%
- Court ruling against the SEC in Grayscale’s case contributes to increased chances
- SEC faces PR loss and political pressure after court defeat
- First deadlines for Bitcoin spot ETF applications approaching
- Approval chances could rise to 95% by the end of 2024
Balchunas explains that the SEC now faces a public relations setback as Grayscale’s victory gained widespread media coverage. This, combined with the court’s ruling, makes it politically challenging for the commission to deny the Bitcoin spot ETF. The analysts believe the SEC will likely issue a delayed order in response to the situation. Additionally, if the SEC manages to deny all applications, rejecting Hashdex’s unique proposal could prove difficult for the agency.
Based on these factors, Balchunas and Seyffart rate the approval chances for a Bitcoin spot ETF in 2023 at 75%, with the potential for those odds to increase to 95% by the end of 2024.
Bitcoin Poised For Massive Gains If Spot ETF Gains Approval
The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs has generated optimism about the potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. A spot ETF would track the price of BTC and offer investors indirect exposure to the asset without the risks associated with direct cryptocurrency investment. Experts believe this could create a high demand-to-supply ratio, potentially driving the price of BTC as high as $185,000, according to hedge fund expert Tom Lee.
Key Points:
- Optimism surrounds the potential effects of Bitcoin spot ETFs on the market
- Indirect exposure to BTC without direct investment risks
- Tom Lee predicts a BTC price increase to $185,000 with spot ETF approval
- BTC experienced a price correction after Grayscale’s court victory
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $27,229.89 with a 0.9% loss in the last day
Overall, the increased approval odds for a Bitcoin spot ETF reflect a growing sentiment of optimism in the crypto community. If approved, the ETF could have a significant impact on the BTC market, potentially driving prices to new heights. However, the SEC still faces challenges and scrutiny in its decision-making process. The coming months will determine whether the ETF becomes a reality and how it shapes the future of cryptocurrency investments.
Hot Take:
The increased approval odds for a Bitcoin spot ETF indicate a positive trend towards mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies. If approved, the ETF could provide a new level of accessibility and legitimacy to the crypto market, attracting more investors and potentially driving up BTC prices. However, regulatory challenges and the SEC’s decision-making process still pose risks and uncertainties. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future of Bitcoin spot ETFs and their impact on the overall crypto landscape.
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