The SEC Likely to Approve Grayscale’s ETF Application, Say Bloomberg Analysts
Following Grayscale’s victory against the SEC in court, Bloomberg ETF analysts have increased the likelihood of Spot Bitcoin ETFs launching this year to 75%. They predict the odds would rise to 95% by the end of 2024 if these ETFs weren’t approved by then. The court’s ruling, which supported Grayscale’s argument that spot and futures ETFs should receive the same regulatory treatment, leaves the SEC with little to hang on to. This has made it harder for the SEC to justify denials.
Key Events to Watch
- The SEC’s first 4-deadline for BlackRock’s ETF application is on September 2, with decisions for Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco, and WisdomTree applications also expected that day.
- Bloomberg analysts expect the SEC to delay decisions, as it did with Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest ETF application.
- Negative PR and mainstream media coverage could lead to a change in the SEC’s stance on ETF applications, as more people become open-minded to crypto.
- Hashdex’s unique approach of purchasing spot Bitcoin directly from exchanges within the CME market makes it difficult for the SEC to deny a Spot ETF application.
Hot Take
The court’s ruling in favor of Grayscale and the increased odds of ETF approval indicate that the SEC may finally give in and approve these applications. The combination of deadlines, negative PR, and Hashdex’s novel approach could further influence the SEC’s decision. This is a positive development for the crypto industry and could lead to increased institutional investment in cryptocurrencies.
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