Bitcoin Price Comparison: How Does the Current Cycle Compare to Previous Ones?
In a recent analysis by Maartunn, the community manager at CryptoQuant Netherlands, the current Bitcoin cycle is compared to the previous two cycles. The analysis focuses on the percentage change in price during the post-all-time-high (ATH) bear market phase. Here are the key points:
- The comparison is based on the bear market drawdown phase of each cycle.
- While the price action doesn’t align perfectly, there is a striking similarity in the percentage drawdowns.
- The cyclical bottoms of each cycle are observed to be relatively close to each other.
- During the bear-market recovery phases, the current cycle and the last cycle show more divergence, while the 2013 cycle experienced an extended consolidation phase.
- The current Bitcoin crash coincides with a sharp drawdown from the 2017 cycle, indicating the possibility of more drawdowns in the price.
Additionally, another analyst, Root, has posted a cycle comparison chart showing that each cycle has experienced periods of being below the short-term holder cost basis in the final year leading up to the halving. This suggests that the current cycle’s crash below this level is not unusual.
Bitcoin’s Current Price and Outlook
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at around $26,400, down 7% in the last week.
Hot Take
The comparison of the current Bitcoin cycle with previous cycles reveals interesting similarities and divergences. While the percentage drawdowns and cyclical bottoms align closely, the bear-market recovery phases show more variability. The current crash coinciding with the drawdown from the 2017 cycle raises concerns about potential further price declines. However, the analysis also indicates that the current cycle’s behavior is not out of the ordinary. Overall, the comparison provides valuable insights for crypto readers and suggests that caution may be warranted in the near term.
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