Cosmos ($ATOM): Analyzing Price Data Using Elliott Wave Theory
Cosmos ($ATOM) is the cryptocurrency that powers the entire Cosmos ecosystem, which includes various projects in finance, decentralized exchanges (DEX), and cloud computing. By applying Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) to $ATOM’s price data, we can gain insights into its market structure.
EWT Summary
The price data for $ATOM starts from April 2019 on Kraken exchange. Using EWT, we can identify different waves within the market structure:
- Cycle Wave 0: Mar 2020 – $1.1151
- Primary Wave 1: $2.4794
- Primary Wave 2: $1.8482 (38.2% LFR)
- Primary Wave 3: $32.2433 (3.618 LFE)
- Primary Wave 4: $7.872 (50% LFR)
- Primary Wave 5: $44.7383 (1.236 LFE)
- Cycle Wave 1: Sep 2021 – $44.7383
Exploring Further
Elliott Wave Theory uses ratios to create price targets. For $ATOM, we need to find the beta multiple by dividing Wave 1 by Wave 0. This multiple helps determine the targets based on EWT-defined numbers:
- 0.618 – $54.26
- 1 – $222.3
- 1.236 – $531.3
- 1.618 – $2,176.84
If $ATOM follows a diagonal pattern, the preferred price box is $54.26 – $222.3. The typical price box is $531.3 – $2,176.84. However, considering the next estimated bull run peak in late 2024 to early 2026, only Intermediate Degree Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 3 is expected to play out.
Conclusion
Based on the projected bull run peak, the relevant price targets for $ATOM are at the Intermediate Wave Degree. The typical price targets for Intermediate Degree Wave 3 are $25.14 – $38.81. With the current price around $11.3, the next peak could be roughly 2 to 3.5 times higher. If Wave 3 extends further to the 2.618 or 3.618 LFE, a new all-time high is possible, meaning at least a 4x increase from the current price. The Primary Wave 1 of Cycle Wave 3 is likely due in late 2026 to 2030 based on Fibonacci Time Ratios.
Glossary
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT): A technical analysis theory that attributes wave-like price patterns to trader psychology and investor sentiment.
Logarithmic Fibonacci Retracement (LFR): A measured correction at certain Fibonacci ratios on a semi-log scale.
Logarithmic Fibonacci Extensions (LFE): A measured rally at certain Fibonacci ratios on a semi-log scale.
Supplemental Reading
For further reading on Elliott Wave Theory and related topics:
- “Elliott Wave Principle – Key To Market Behavior” by Frost & Prechter
- “Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading” by Gorman & Kennedy
- “How to Calculate Logarithmic Retracements and Extensions” by C. D. Chester
Hot Take: The Future of $ATOM
Considering the projected bull run peak in late 2024 to early 2026, Cosmos ($ATOM) has the potential for significant price growth. With the current price around $11.3, the expected price targets for Intermediate Degree Wave 3 are $25.14 – $38.81. However, if Wave 3 extends further, reaching the 2.618 or 3.618 LFE, a new all-time high becomes possible. This would result in a minimum 4x increase from the current price. Keep an eye on the market and consider the Fibonacci ratios and EWT principles when analyzing $ATOM’s price movements.
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