Spot Ethereum ETF Approval: Will the SEC Give Its Nod?
There is a lot of debate among crypto enthusiasts about the chances of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Ethereum ETFs, similar to what it did with Bitcoin ETFs in January.
Polymarket Insights on Spot ETH ETF
According to Polymarket, a well-known prediction market, there is speculation that the SEC may approve the spot Ethereum ETF applications by May 31. However, the odds of receiving a positive decision from the SEC by that time are less than 50%.
- The current odds of approval within the next two months are only 45% according to Polymarket’s chart.
This uncertainty indicates that crypto enthusiasts are unsure if the SEC will grant these requests. This is in stark contrast to January 10 when there was over an 80% chance of approval for spot Ethereum ETFs.
Since then, the odds have fluctuated and gradually decreased. Some experts have shared their thoughts on the likelihood of approval in the coming months, with varying degrees of certainty.
Skeptical Optimism Regarding Spot Ethereum ETF Approval
In contrast to the pessimism shown on Polymarket, Senior Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart estimated a 60% chance of spot Ethereum ETFs receiving approval in May. However, as the SEC continued to delay its decision on individual requests from filers like Grayscale Investments and BlackRock, analysts began to reconsider their predictions.
- In February, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra predicted a 50% likelihood of an Ethereum investment vehicle entering the market as early as May.
This decline in optimism reflects the changing market realities. However, there are still individuals like CNBC’s Mad Money host Jim Cramer who believe that there is a high probability of approval in the near future. Cramer’s speculation is based on the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
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