Ethereum ETF Approval Chances Drop to 35%: Analysts
According to Bloomberg Intelligence ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the chances of approval for Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have significantly decreased in recent months. Balchunas took to social media to share this update with the crypto community, stating that there is now only a 35% chance of getting ETH ETFs approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by the anticipated May deadline. This marks a significant departure from his previous forecast of a 70% possibility of approval. However, Balchunas also noted that while the odds have dropped, there is still a chance for approval in the long term.
Doubts Surrounding Ethereum ETF Approval
Balchunas explained that the uncertainty surrounding Ethereum ETFs stems from several factors, including:
- Lack of indicators and sources that gave a positive outlook for Bitcoin Spot ETFs
- No significant interaction from SEC officials regarding applications
- The rapidly approaching May deadline
Despite these challenges, Balchunas encouraged the crypto community not to lose hope completely, as a 35% chance is not zero.
Eleanor Terret’s Insights on Ethereum ETF Approvals
Fox Journalist Eleanor Terret also weighed in on the topic, sharing her insights on Jake Chervinsky’s opinions. Terret acknowledged that Chervinsky’s views align with what she has been hearing about the approvals. However, she emphasized that this does not mean the products will not be accepted within the year. Terret expressed optimism that the SEC might engage more with the applications in April or May.
James Seyffart’s Perspective on Ethereum ETF Cycle
Another Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, James Seyffart, shared his perspective on the Ethereum ETF cycle. He noted that the current cycle seems to be the reverse of Bitcoin ETF approval probabilities. Seyffart’s optimism decreases as he observes and hears less progress being made towards approval. With the deadline less than 73 days away, there are concerns about the lack of progress in the approval process.
Polymarket Confirms Decline in Acceptance Odds
The decline in acceptance odds for Ethereum ETFs is further confirmed by Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market. Data from Polymarket shows that the current odds for Ethereum ETF approval are at 36%. This aligns with the analysis provided by Balchunas and Seyffart.
Overall, the consensus among top market analysts and experts is that the chances of Ethereum ETFs getting approved by the SEC have significantly decreased. The uncertainty surrounding these products, coupled with the lack of progress and interaction from SEC officials, raises doubts about their approval within the anticipated May deadline. However, there is still a glimmer of hope for long-term approval.
Hot Take: Approval Unlikely in Near Future
Based on recent analyses and expert opinions, it seems unlikely that Ethereum ETFs will be approved by the SEC in the near future. The decreasing odds and lack of progress raise concerns about whether these products will meet regulatory requirements within the anticipated May deadline. However, it’s important to remember that a 35% chance is not zero, leaving room for potential approval in the long term. Crypto enthusiasts should continue to monitor developments closely while managing their expectations.
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