The Bitcoin ETF Is Coming: 5 Things To Watch This Week
As the crypto world anticipates the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), there are several key factors to keep an eye on. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store and co-founder of the ETF Institute, highlights five important aspects to watch this week.
1. Fee Disclosures
Geraci emphasizes the significance of fee disclosures, particularly from major players like BlackRock and Grayscale. The competition in this area is crucial, with Fidelity leading with a 0.39% fee and Invesco close behind at 0.59%.
2. SEC Approval Vote
The SEC’s approval vote is another critical factor. Before the vote takes place, two technical criteria must be met for a spot-backed Bitcoin ETF. The SEC needs to authorize the 19b-4 filings submitted by exchanges intending to list the ETFs, as well as sanction the relevant S-1 forms from prospective issuers.
3. Potential Launch Date
Speculations suggest that these ETFs could potentially launch as early as Thursday. Geraci is intrigued by the amount of investor money expected to flow into these ETFs, with rumors of BlackRock entering with $2 billion and ARK possibly investing over $200 million.
4. GBTC Conversion/Uplisting
A significant aspect to watch is whether Grayscale’s GBTC will convert or uplist on the same day as other ETF launches. Geraci believes it will happen based on tweets, filings, and general actions from executives. GBTC’s existing $27 billion in assets could instantly make it one of the top ETFs by AUM upon launch.
5. Marketing Strategies
The marketing strategies of entities like BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, ARK, and Grayscale are also worth observing. Geraci wonders how these companies will approach advertising given the restrictive ’33 Act rules and expects innovative approaches.
The Final Steps This Week
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart agrees with Geraci’s points and finds the fee competition particularly interesting. He believes that the intense rivalry in this sector will be captivating. Finance lawyer Scott Johnsson provides insights into the timeline and approval probabilities:
Right now: 96-98%
19b-4 approval: 99%
Notice of effectiveness: 99.99%
Trading: 100%.
Hot Take: A Watershed Moment for Bitcoin ETFs
This week marks a significant moment for Bitcoin ETFs in the US. The SEC’s decisions on the 19b-4 filings and S-1 forms are the final hurdles to overcome. If approved, this could signify a major integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial markets.
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