Summary of Bitcoin’s Current Standing 📈
Bitcoin (BTC) has reached impressive milestones in 2024; however, the cryptocurrency has faced a period of stagnant trading since March, grappling with the significant psychological level of $70,000, which it has struggled to surpass, even dipping to as low as $54,000 on occasion. Although the anticipated month of ‘Uptober’ was expected to trigger a new bullish trend, this development seems to be less promising than hoped. As of now, BTC trades at approximately $68,930, boasting a 5.16% increase over the last month. Despite the letdown of October’s bullish prospects, analysts like Michaël van de Poppe are still identifying pivotal factors that could initiate another upward trend for Bitcoin.
Market Sentiment and External Influences 📉
Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, views the current market sentiment as cautious. He notes that Bitcoin appears to be in an accumulation phase, lacking the vigorous momentum typical of a traditional bull run. According to him, the present circumstances indicate a more tempered rally rather than the steep movements enthusiasts are anticipating.
“The question is, are we already in the bull market for Bitcoin? One could argue that the Bitcoin bull cycle comprises two phases. We’ve observed a rally reaching new all-time highs based on liquidity brought forth by the ETF; however, it’s not the vertical ascent we all desire.”
While acknowledging that October may not offer a broader crypto rally as previously speculated, van de Poppe maintains an optimistic view. He encourages both investors and traders to hold their positions. Recent discussions are available in a YouTube video released on October 27, highlighting his insights.
The expert pointed out that despite recent interest rate cuts, rates remain significantly high. This situation tends to shift liquidity away from higher-risk assets, like cryptocurrencies, toward more stable government bonds, such as U.S. Treasuries, which are currently enjoying rising yields. Additionally, the strength of the U.S. dollar acts as another detracting force for liquidity.
Interestingly, van de Poppe also notes that even as Bitcoin reaches new nominal all-time highs, when inflation is taken into account, its real value does not reflect record prices.
Potential Catalysts for Bitcoin’s Rise 🚀
On a more positive note, van de Poppe highlights a crucial indicator of money supply known as M2. This measure has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements in past cycles and is currently on an upward trajectory.
According to him, if the M2 supply continues to grow, it could channel more liquidity into the markets, favoring risk assets like Bitcoin as investors look for alternatives to the dollar amid rising inflation.
“As long as the M2 supply expands, Bitcoin’s price is poised to follow suit… it’s merely a matter of time before Bitcoin begins to gain momentum.”
In addition to this, van de Poppe identifies various macroeconomic events on the horizon that could act as bullish catalysts for Bitcoin’s performance. He highlights several factors, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the ongoing initiative by BRICS nations to introduce a currency alternative to the U.S. dollar, the possibility of a Trump presidency, and increasing inflows into BTC-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Moreover, the veteran analyst anticipates that altcoins and Ethereum (ETH) could outperform Bitcoin over the long term, provided that ETH stabilizes, which aligns with his latest portfolio allocations.
Hot Take on Bitcoin’s Future 🔮
As you reflect on the current state of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, consider the various external elements impacting BTC’s performance. Although this year has not unfolded as expected for bullish sentiments, the landscape remains dynamic. Factors like M2 money supply growth, significant economic events, and market liquidity all play crucial roles in Bitcoin’s potential future trajectory. Staying informed and adaptable will be essential as you navigate this evolving market space.
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