Fidelity Releases Bitcoin and Ethereum Outlook Report
Fidelity Digital Assets has published a comprehensive report outlining the short-term and long-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The report provides valuable insights for investors considering investing in the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF (FBTC). The recent inflows to FBTC demonstrate the impact of the outlook report, with $130 million pouring in on February 7 and a total inflow of $145 million from 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Key Market Metrics for Bitcoin and Ethereum
The Fidelity Digital Assets report breaks down key market metrics that are influencing the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as investor sentiment. According to the report, Bitcoin’s forecasts for 2024, the next five years, and beyond are generally positive based on on-chain metrics and other signal indicators. On the other hand, Ethereum’s mid-term outlook is neutral, while its short-term outlook is positive.
Bitcoin Prediction Signals
To predict short-term Bitcoin price movements, Fidelity considered factors such as the 200-day moving average, golden cross and death cross patterns, and current price relative to realized price. Additionally, Fidelity’s bullish market prediction for 2024 depends on three key factors: interest rates, the Bitcoin halving event, and the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs. For the mid-term outlook until 2028, Fidelity analyzed various metrics such as NUPL ratio, MVRV Z-Score, Reserve risk, Stock-to-flow ratio, Puell Multiple, Hodler net position change, Addresses in profit, and Bitcoin yardstick. Most of these metrics indicate a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price.
Ethereum Prediction Signals
Similar to Bitcoin, Fidelity used factors like the 200-day moving average, golden cross and death cross patterns, and current price relative to realized price for short-term Ethereum price prediction. For the mid-term outlook until 2028, Fidelity analyzed metrics such as NUPL ratio, MVRV Z-Score, percent of addresses in profit, and Pi cycle top indicator. When predicting the long-term price of Ethereum (above 5 years), Fidelity considered metrics like price above the 200-week moving average, monthly address metrics, new address momentum, liquid vs. illiquid supply, and balance greater than 0.1 BTC.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Action
Fidelity also observed that Bitcoin’s post-halving price appreciation has been declining steadily in terms of absolute percentages. This decline can be attributed to factors such as a growing Bitcoin market cap, frequent trades, and reduced availability of BTC. As for the current price action, Bitcoin has experienced a nearly 5% jump in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $44,465. The trading volume has also increased by 40% during this period. In regards to Ethereum, its price has risen by 3% in the last 24 hours and is now trading at $2,417.
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