Former Goldman Sachs Executive Predicts Possible Bitcoin Price Scenarios
Raoul Pal, former executive at Goldman Sachs and CEO of Real Vision, has updated his outlook on the current crypto market cycle. In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, founder of Pomp Investments, Pal suggests that Bitcoin could potentially follow a “bubble” price pattern similar to the 2011-2013 cycle and reach as high as $500,000. However, he assigns a 20% chance to this scenario and also mentions two other possibilities.
Three Potential Scenarios
Pal explains that there is a 60% probability that the current cycle will be relatively normal, with Bitcoin reaching around $150,000. He gives a 20% chance to a front-loaded cycle in which Bitcoin quickly reaches $150,000 due to factors like spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and then experiences a decline. The remaining 20% chance is that this turns out to be a bubble cycle resembling the 2011-2013 period. Pal emphasizes that various factors such as ETF flows, monetary policy, the economy, and the US presidential election will influence the outcome.
Predicted Upside Targets
In terms of the bubble scenario, Pal mentions the possibility of Bitcoin reaching half a million dollars or even higher. Even if he discounts his prediction by 50%, he still arrives at a target of $250,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $43,049 with a nearly 2% increase in the last 24 hours.
Hot Take: Examining Potential Outcomes for Bitcoin’s Future
Raoul Pal, former executive at Goldman Sachs and CEO of Real Vision, provides insights into potential outcomes for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. While there is a chance that Bitcoin could follow a “bubble” pattern similar to the 2011-2013 cycle and reach as high as $500,000, Pal assigns this scenario a 20% probability. He also considers two other possibilities: a relatively normal cycle with Bitcoin reaching around $150,000 (60% probability) and a front-loaded cycle where Bitcoin quickly reaches $150,000 before declining (20% probability). Pal emphasizes that various factors, including ETF flows, monetary policy, the economy, and the US presidential election, will impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. Regardless of the scenario, Pal suggests significant upside potential for Bitcoin’s price.
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